Sunday, June 2, 2024

J-Speaks: 2024 East Finals Preview

 (1)   Boston Celtics versus (6) Indiana Pacers

      (64-18)                               (47-35)

Season-Series: Celtics Won 3-2 (0-1 IST)
Playoff History: BOS def IND 3-2 1991 Eastern Conference Quarterfinals
                            BOS def IND 3-0 1992 Eastern Conference Quarterfinals
                            BOS def IND 4-2 2003 Eastern Conference Quarterfinals
                            BOS def IND 4-0 2004 Eastern Conference Quarterfinals
                            IND def BOS 4-3 2005 Eastern Conference Quarterfinals
                            BOS def IND 4-0 2019 Eastern Conference Quarterfinals

It is not a surprise that the boys from “Beantown” are playing to represent the Eastern Conference in NBA championship round for the second time in the past three seasons. The team that is standing in their path in the boys from “Hoosier Country” are a surprise as they have made the most of their first postseason appearance in a decade. Their previous six postseason encounters all occurred in the opening-round of the postseason. The two now meet for the first time outside the Quarterfinal round with a berth in the NBA Finals on the line. For the boys from “Beantown,” they hope to get one step closer to winning the franchise’s 18th championship in franchise history. While the boys from “Hoosier Country” hope to punch their ticket to “The Finals” for the second time in franchise history, including their first since the start of the new century.

Following their 14th 60-plus win season in their storied franchise history with 64 wins in the regular season and winning their third straight Atlantic Division title, the Celtics have been decent in the first two round of 2024 Playoffs taking out the No. 8 Seeded Miami Heat and the No. 5 Seeded Cleveland Cavaliers winning both series 4-1.

The Celtics have followed the same pattern to win their first two series in 2024 NBA Playoffs. They won Game 1 at home but dropped Game 2 at because the Heat and Cavaliers each had single-game franchise record from three-point range.

The Heat in their Game 2 victory (111-101) in the opening-round at the Celtics Apr. 24, 2024 (TNT) hit a single-game franchise Playoff record 23 triples, going 23/43 from three.

The Cavs in their Game 2 victory in the East Semis at the Celtics on May 9, 2024 (TNT) connected on 13 for 28 from three and shot 54.7 percent on the night (47/86 FGs) and outscored the Celtics 36-24 in the third quarter and 28-16 in the fourth quarter.

The Celtics answered in the first two round by taking the final three games of both series including both Games 3 and 4 on their opponent’s home floor to win both series 4-1. 

The Celtics earned their third straight Finals appearance and six in the last eight seasons behind their dynamic All-Star duo of Jayson Tatum (24.3 ppg, 10.4 rpg, 5.8 apg) and Jaylen Brown (23.1 ppg, who have been flanked by Derrick White (18.2 ppg, 48.5 FG%, 43.5 3-Pt.%), Kristaps Porzingis (12.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.5 bpg 40 3-Pt.%), Jrue Holiday (10.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 4.1 apg, 44.0 FG%, 38.6 3-Pt.%), Al Horford (8.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 47.3 3-Pt.%), Payton Pritchard (7.8 ppg, 45.2 FG%, 42.9 3-Pt.%), and Sam Hauser (5.5 ppg, 48.8 FG%, 44.2 3-Pt.%).

In the opening-round versus the Heat, it was Brown and White who did the heavy lifting offensively with Brown (22.8 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 52.2 FG%) and White (22.4 ppg, 57.7 FG%, 47.7 3-Pt.%). Tatum was solid with his overall game (21.8 ppg, 10.4 rpg, 5.4 apg) but his shooting efficiency was not there connecting on just 41.6 percent from the field and 29 percent on his triple tries but shot 80 percent at the foul line on an average of nine trips (36/45 FTs).  

In the East Semis against the Cavs, Tatum’s (26.8 ppg, 10.4 rpg, 6.2 apg) shooting efficiency overall ticked up to 44.1 percent, which also rose his scoring output, while also continuing to get to the foul line at a solid rate at 7.4 attempts, connecting on 94.6 percent of those tries (35/37 FTs).  

Tatum in the Cavs’ victories in Cleveland had his two best games of this postseason so far with 33 points, 13 boards, and six assists on 11/25 from the floor and 9/9 at the charity stripe in the 106-93 victory in Game 3 May 11, 2024 (ABC). That was followed by another 33-point performance with 11 rebounds and five assists with two steals on 11/25 shooting and 9/9 at the foul line again in the Game 4 triumph (109-102) two nights later (TNT). In the Game 5 clincher, Tatum had a near triple-double with 25 points, 10 boards and nine assists on 9/16 shooting, including 3/7 from three.  

Brown (23.4 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 59.2 FG%, 42.9 3-Pt.%) was also solid in the East Semis against the Cavs.

The Pacers, who made the Playoffs for the first time since 2020 restart in Orlando, FL are back in the East Finals for the first time since 2014 and are making their ninth appearance in the Eastern Conference championship round.

Head Coach Rick Carlisle’s squad got here by taking down the injury riddled No. 3 Seeded Milwaukee Bucks in the opening-round 4-2, who missed perennial All-Star and two-time Kia MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. In the East Semis, they outlasted the No. 2 Seeded New York Knicks, who missed All-Star Julius Randle, Bojan Bogdanovic, Mitchell Robinson to start the series. They lost OG Anunoby the final five games of the series and All-Star lead guard Jalen Brunson was lost late in the third quarter of Game 7 on Sunday when he broke his left hand while swiping down on lead All-Star guard Tyrese Haliburton on a breakaway layup.

While the Pacers’ top seeded opponents were depleted by those injuries to key personnel, the boys from “Hoosier Country,” handle their business in those series behind their dynamic offensive attack and their incredible depth from their starters to their reserves.

The Pacers high-octane offense, which was one of the best in NBA history during the regular season, leading the NBA in scoring at 123.3 points has continued into the postseason led by Haliburton (19.3 ppg, 8.2 apg, 4.9 rpg, 48.8 FG%, 38.1 3-Pt.%).

In the opening-round series against the Bucks, Haliburton (16.0 ppg, 9.3 apg, 5.8 rpg) was solid in terms of his floor game, but his shooting effectiveness just was not there as he shot 43.5 percent overall from the field and just 29.6 percent from three.

In Game 3 of the First-Round versus the Bucks, Haliburton overcame a rough shooting performance (8/22 FGs-1/12 3-Pt.) by registering his first career triple-double of 18 points, 16 assists, and 10 rebounds and hit the go-ahead field goal that helped the Pacers pull out a 121-118 victory in overtime in Game 3 Apr. 26, 2024 (ESPN) to go up in the series 2-1.

While those shooting struggles continued in the Game 6 clinching win versus the Bucks (120-98) on May 2, 2024 (TNT) where he went just 2/10 from three, Haliburton had his third double-double of the series with 17 points and 10 assists with six boards on 7/16 shooting overall.

In the East Semis against the Knicks, Haliburton was publicly pushed by his head coach to raise his offensive aggressiveness. Looking to score and find open teammates second.

That adjustment worked as Haliburton in the series averaged 24 points on 17.5 field goal attempts in the victories compared to just 17.6 points on just 11.3 shot attempts in the three losses.

In the Pacers aforementioned Game 3 victory versus the Knicks, Haliburton had his best scoring night of the postseason with 35 points with seven assists on 14/26 from the field, including 6/16 from three-point range. This was on the heels of a 34-point performance with nine assists and six rebounds on 11/19 from the field, including 7/11 from three in the Game 2 defeat (130-121) May 8, 2024 at the Knicks (TNT).

In the Game 7 clincher at the Knicks on Sunday afternoon (130-109) (ABC), Haliburton led the way with 26 points and six assists on 10/17 shooting, including 6/12 from three. He scored 14 of those 26 points in the opening period, going 5/7 from the field, including 4/5 on his triple tries.

Back in the middle of January, the Pacers made a major deal in acquiring All-Star forward Pascal Siakam from the Toronto Raptors, who brought with him postseason and championship experience in helping the Raptors win it all in 2019 over the back-to-back reigning NBA champion Golden State Warriors in six games.

After a rocky beginning when he first arrived during the regular season, Siakam (21.3 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 3.8 apg, 53.6 FG%) has really hit his stride with the Pacers especially in the postseason.

To open the First-Round at the Bucks, Siakam scored 36 points with 13 rebounds and two blocks on 15/25 shooting in Game 1. But the Bucks lost the opener of the series (109-94) Apr. 21, 2024 (TNT). In the Game 2 victory (125-108) two nights later (NBATV) that tied the series 1-1, Siakam scored a Playoff career-high 37 points with 11 rebounds, six assists on 16/23 shooting, going 3/4 from three.

Siakam though was quiet in the game that followed until the close of the Knicks series where he scored 20-plus in four of the final five games. That included a 26-point performance with seven rebounds on 9/14 shooting and 7/9 at the charity stripe in the 111-106 triumph in Game 3 versus the Knicks on May 10, 2024 (ESPN) that cut the Pacers’ series deficit to 2-1. He then registered 25 points with seven boards and five assists with two steals on 11/21 shooting in the Game 6 triumph (116-103) versus the Knicks last Friday night (ESPN) that tied the series 2-2.  

The Pacers deep roster also consist of veterans in Myles Turner (17.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.8 bpg, 52.3 FG%, 47.3 3-Pt.%) and Haliburton’s understudy in T.J. McConnell (10.9 ppg, 5.2 apg,  48.6 FG%). Youngsters in Andrew Nembhard (12.9 ppg, 5.0 apg, 56.5 FG%, 48.8 3-Pt.%), Obi Toppin (11.3 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 54.4 FG%), Aaron Nesmith (10.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg), Ben Sheppard (5.6 ppg, 47.4 FG%, 43.9 3-Pt.%) and Isaiah Jackson.

Turner came up big for the Pacers in the Games 3 and 4 in the opening-round versus the Bucks. He registered 29 points and nine rebounds on 10/21 shooting, including 4/10 from three in the aforementioned Game 3 win in OT. He scored 29 again with nine rebounds and three blocks on 10/17 from the floor, including going 7/9 from three-point range in the Game 4 victory (126-113) Apr. 28, 2024 (TNT) that put the Pacers up 3-1.

The Pacers on that night made a single-game franchise Playoff record 22 triples, going 22/43 from three.

Turner in the Game 3 victory in the East Semis versus the Knicks had his first double-double of this postseason with 21 points and 10 boards with three blocks on 7/13 shooting.

In that same game, Nembhard hit the go-ahead three with 16 seconds left that gave the Pacers the eventual victory.

Last season, Toppin with the Knicks was languishing at times playing behind Randle and it was a struggle to earn minutes under Head Coach Tom Thibodeau who will only play certain guys that he trust, especially at the defensive end.

With the Pacers, Toppin has earned Coach Carlisle’s trust and it has resulted in him being a major contributor off the Pacers bench.

In the Game 6 clincher versus the Bucks, Toppin led the way off the bench with 21 points and eight boards on 8/15 from the field, making three triples. He averaged for the series 12.3 points and 5.8 boards on 49.2 percent from the floor.

Against his former team in the East Semis, Toppin scored in double-figures four times against the Knicks. His best game of the series came in the Game 2 defeat at the Knicks where he scored 20 off the bench on 7/10 shooting.

During the regular season, the Celtics took three of the five meetings, outscoring the Pacers 129 to 116.8. The differential of -12.2 by the Celtics over the Pacers was the largest deficit against any opponent against the Pacers.

The Pacers during the regular season led the league in scoring at 123.3 and just behind them at No. 2 were the Celtics 120.6.

              Most Combined Points Per Game In Playoff Series In NBA History                           
                                                                                                                               Combined PPG
1967 NBA Finals                                76ers-Warriors (SF)                                       247.6
1962 East Division Finals                 Celtics-Warriors (PHI)                                  246.5
1962 East Division Semifinals          Warriors (PHI)-Nationals (SYR)                  246.2
1967 East Division Finals                 76ers-Celtics                                                    244.5
2024 Eastern Conference Finals      Pacers-Celtics                                                  243.9

The difference between these two teams is that the Celtics were No. 5 in points allowed (109.2) while the Pacers were No. 2 in points allowed (120.2).

In their first meeting of the season, the Celtics blew out the Pacers (155-104) at home on Nov. 1, 2023, where they scored 44 points in the opening period to lead 44-27 and then outscored and 46-33 in the fourth quarter.

Tatum in his last eight his last games against the Pacers, including the Playoffs has scored 30 or more, the longest streak all-time versus the Pacers. In the four games against the Pacers, Tatum averaged 32.5 points, 11 rebounds, and 5.8 assists on 57.8 percent from the field and 48.6 percent from three-point range.

Brown was just as effective against the Pacers averaging in the five meetings in regular season 28.4 points and 6.2 boards on 60.6 percent from the floor.

Along with their 1-2 punch on offense with Tatum and Brown, they along with the dynamic defensive starting backcourt of Holiday and White, and Pritchard will be tasked to slowing down Haliburton, who in the four games he played against the Celtics in the regular season averaged just 15.8 points, nine assists, and 5.3 rebounds on 41.1 percent from the floor and 32.1 percent from three (compared 20.1 ppg, 10.9 apg-Led NBA, 47.7 FG%, 36.4 3-Pt.%). 

In the Pacers’ first win of the regular season versus the Celtics during the In-Season Tournament Dec. 4, 2024 (TNT) Haliburton had his first career triple-double with 26 points, 13 assists and 10 rebounds on 10/18 from the floor, including 5/11 from three-point range.

On this night, the Pacers overcame a nine-point deficit at intermission (57-48) outscoring the Celtics 74-57 in the second half, including 37-23 in the third quarter.

The Pacers outshot the Celtics from three-point range going 19/40 compared to 12/41 by the visitors as well as outshot them at the foul line going 17/21 compared to 8/12 by the Celtics.  

The Celtics did not help themselves in the defeat with 18 turnovers that led to 17 Pacers points.

For the Pacers to have a chance in this series, they will need to play to the level they did in the two wins they had against the Celtics, where they kept the tempo up and scored on every easy chance they got. Meaning Haliburton and McConnell have to keep the tempo of the game up at all times and force the Celtics to play on their heels as much as possible.

So far this postseason, when the Pacers have scored 120 or more, they have a 6-1 record.

Defensively, the Pacers will have to try and contain Tatum and that assignment will go to Nesmith, who went against Tatum every day in practice for two seasons (2020-22) as the Celtics No. 1 draft choice (No. 14 overall) in 2020 out of Vanderbilt University.

Nesmith was traded to the Pacers two off-seasons back as part of the 5-1 deal that sent now Portland Trail Blazers veteran guard Malcolm Brogdon to the Celtics.

Nesmith, who had some success in slowing down the Brunson, will be called upon to attempt to slow down Tatum.

Perhaps the biggest key in determining the outcome of this series is what takes place both in the paint and on the perimeter.

The Celtics since the close of their First-Round tilt with the Heat have been without All-Star center Kristaps Porzingis due to a right calf strain sustain in the opening half of Game 4.

While the Celtics have gone 5-1 without Porzingis and 26-5 counting the regular season (21-4 record in regular season), his absence has resulted in the Celtics reverting back into some heavy isolation sets offensively. 

Filling in for Porzingis has been Horford, who put on a show in the series clinching 113-98 victory in Game 5 versus the Cavs May 15, 2024 (TNT) where he registered a massive double-double with 22 points and 15 rebounds with five assists, and three block shots on 8/15 from the field, including 6/13 from three-point range.

At age 37 years, 347 days, Horford, who registered his first 20-plus point game in the postseason since 2022 became the oldest player in NBA Playoff history to register 15-plus points, 10-plus rebounds, five-plus assists, and five-plus made threes.

Having Horford and Luke Kornet should be enough to get the Celtics past the Pacers. But considering what lies ahead in The Finals if they can get past the Pacers, they will need Porzingis’ size and sharp-shooting and rim protection to win it all against either the Minnesota Timberwolves or the Dallas Mavericks.

Another challenge for the Celtics in this series possibly and moving forward is how they might respond if this series against the Pacers and possibly The Finals have games that go to clutch time.

So far through their first 10 Playoff games, the Celtics have played just 79 seconds with the score of the game within five points in the last five minutes of the fourth quarter/overtime, which took place in Game 4 at the Cavs.

Cleveland got within five on three occasions in the final period after trailing by nine with five minutes remaining. But the Cavs never got any closer as the Celtics closed the door scoring six points on four offensive possessions in “clutch time.”

Nine of the Celtics 10 games so far this postseason (including both of their setbacks) have been decided by 10 points or more.

The Pacers have gone 2-2 in “clutch games” so far this postseason, winning as previously mentioned Game 3 of the opening-round versus the Bucks and Game 3 in the East Semis versus the Knicks.

The other issue for the Celtics has been their play at home versus on the road not just this postseason but the past three postseasons, including this one.

While they have gone a solid 4-2 at TD Garden in the first two round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs, the Celtics are just 15-14 on their home floor dating back to the 2022 postseason, compared to the 18-7 mark on the road, which includes a perfect 4-0 record so far in the 2024 Playoffs.

Holding serve at home will be big for the Celtics in this series because the Pacers even with their series clinching victory last Sunday afternoon at the Knicks are just 2-5 so far in the 2024 Playoffs on the road compared to 6-0 at home and have won 11 straight games at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.  

Information, statistics, quotations courtesy of 5/15/2024 7 p.m. “Cavaliers vs Celtics,” Game 5 2024 NBA Playoffs, presented by Google Pixel, East Semifinals on TNT, presented by Wingstop With Spero Dedes, Greg Anthony, Stephanie Ready; 5/15/2024 1 a.m. ESPN’s “Sportscenter” from Los Angeles, CA With Linda Cohn, Stan Verrett; 5/20/2024 www.nba.com story, “East Finals Preview: What To Expect In Celtics-Pacers Series,” By Steve Aschburner and John Schuhmann;  https://www.espn.com/nba/team/stats/_/name/ind/indiana-pacers; https://www.espn.com/nba/team/stats/_/name/bos/boston-celtics; https://www.landofbasketball.com/head_to_head_gl/celtics_vs_pacers_game_log_pl.htm; https://www.espn.com/nba/matchup/_/gameid/401655100; https://www.espn.com/nba/matchup/_/gameid/401658225; https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/2024-nba-eastern-conference-first-round-heat-vs-celtics.html; https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/2024-nba-eastern-conference-semifinals-cavaliers-vs-celtics.html; https://www.espn.com/nba/player/splits/_/id/4396993/tyrese-haliburton; https://www.espn.com/nba/player/splits/_/id/4065648/jayson-tatum; https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/3149673/pascal-siakam; https://www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/4278355/obu-toppin; https://www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/313628/myles-turner; https://www.espn.com/nba/matchup/_/gameid/401607491

No comments:

Post a Comment