J-Speaks: 2024 West Finals Preview

 

(3) Minnesota Timberwolves versus (5) Dallas Mavericks
                    (57-25)                                          (50-32)

              Season-Series: Timberwolves Won 3-1
              Playoff History: DAL def MIN 3-0 2002 Western Conference Quarterfinals

For the boys from “Big D,” they were in the Western Conference Finals two springs back and were taken down in five games by the eventual NBA champions from the “Bay Area.” Last season, a late season collapse had them outside the postseason picture. Behind two trades at the Feb. 9, 2023 trade deadline along with the blockbuster acquisition of a former NBA champion and one of the most dynamic guards in the league this past decade-plus, the Mavericks are back in the West Finals seeking their third NBA Finals appearance in franchise history. Standing in their way are the boys from the “Twin Cities,” who turned their second most productive season in terms of wins into their second West Finals berth and their first in two decades. Behind their star swingman, who has captured the basketball world this postseason, their All-Star power forward and center and the best defense in the postseason, the boys from the “Twin Cities,” hope to punch their ticket to the NBA Finals for the first time in their 35-year history. Here is the J-Speaks 2024 Western Conference Finals Preview.

The last time the Dallas Mavericks and the Minnesota Timberwolves locked horns in the postseason was 22 years ago when Hall of Famer Dirk Nowitzki led the No. 4 Seeded Mavericks (57-25) to a 3-0 series sweep in the best-of-five tilt over the No. 5 Seeded Timberwolves (50-32) and fellow Hall of Famer Kevin Garnett. The Mavericks fell in the West Semis that spring to the eventual Western Conference runner-up in the Sacramento Kings and fellow Hall of Famers Chris Webber and Vlade Divac.

Ironically enough two postseasons later, the Timberwolves and Garnett, the Kia MVP for 2003-04 took down Webber and the Kings in the West Semis 4-3 on the date of May 19, 2004, winning Game 7 83-80 on TNT. Garnett led the way with 32 points, 21 rebounds, four steals, and five blocks on 12/23 shooting. On that same night of victory, now Boston Celtics assistant and former All-Star coach Sam Cassell, who was brought in that summer scored 23 with seven assists on 10/11 at the foul line. Fellow All-Star Latrell Sprewell, who was also brought in the same summer by the Wolves scored 14.

In the 2004 West Finals, the Wolves fell to the Los Angeles Lakers led by Hall of Famers in now Turner Sports studio analyst Shaquille O’Neal and the late Kobe Bryant 4-2.

The second postseason tilt between the Mavericks and Timberwolves features two of the league’s current top stars and possibly future Hall of Famers in Luka Doncic of the Mavericks and Anthony Edwards, who has captured the country this postseason with his stellar play on both ends of the hardwood.

In their previous 10 encounters during the regular season portion of their careers, both have led their teams to five victories.

In those 10 tilts, Doncic has averaged 24.8 points, 7.7 assists and 7.3 boards. Edwards has registered 23.9 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 4.7 assists.

While Doncic and Edwards will grab the headlines and are expected to put up eye-popping statistics, the team that has the best chance to win this series will be the one that gets consistent play from their supporting cast, particularly their fellow co-star(s). It will be the team that brings it on the defensive end, especially on the glass.

Both the Timberwolves and the Mavericks have had similar paths that have gotten back to the point where they are four more wins away from getting another step closer to the championship round.   

For the Dallas Mavericks, they have gotten to this point in the postseason by taking down the No. 4 Seeded Los Angeles Clippers (51-31) in the opening-round 4-2 and in the West Semis 4-2 over the No. 1 Seeded Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25).

Leading the charge has been Doncic (27.3 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 9.1 apg), who finished third in the league’s MVP voting behind the Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and the winner of the award in Nikola Jokic of the now former defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets, more on that later.

While the numbers have been spectacular, Doncic has fought through ailments to his knees, and hobbled ankle and a couple of other injuries, which has effected his shooting efficiency to the tune of 42.3 percent from the floor and 30.1 percent from three-point range.

It has not stopped him contributing in other parts of the game. He closed the Thunder series with three straight triple-doubles as part of his five double-doubles overall to close out that six-game series win, totaling 10 double-doubles in the first two rounds of this postseason, including four triple-doubles.

What has really helped the Mavericks get back to the West Finals after a one-year absence has been the buy-in from head coach Jason Kidd’s squad at the defensive end. How Doncic has trusted his teammates more and that those said teammates have come through big time.

One of those teammates that Doncic has built the ultimate trust in is perennial All-Star guard Kyrie Irving (21.1 ppg, 5.4 apg, 48.2 FG%, 44.0 3-Pt.%), who the Mavericks acquired from the Brooklyn Nets near the NBA Trade Deadline (Feb. 6, 2023) last season.

The pairing did not yield instant results as the Mavericks finished last season 9-18, including 5-11 with Doncic and Irving both in the lineup as the Mavericks missed out on the postseason.

While the Mavericks showed signs of progress with their dynamic guard pairing, they were still a team that was missing something. Missing more of a supporting cast that complimented Doncic and Irving.

At this season’s NBA Trade Deadline (Feb. 9, 2024), the Mavericks acquired some much needed to that supporting cast in Daniel Gafford from the Washington Wizards and P.J. Washington from the Charlotte Hornets.

Those acquisitions paired alongside Derrick Jones, Jr. (10.8 ppg, 51.0 FG%, 37.5 3-Pt.%), rookie Dereck Lively II (8.3 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 58.1 FG%), Tim Hardaway, Jr. , Dante Exum, Maxi Kleber, Josh Green turned the Mavericks into a team that became more balance on both ends of the floor and made them an even better rebounding team.

That coupled with the leadership of Doncic and Irving, the Mavericks closed 2023-24 with a 24-9 record and secured the No. 5 Seed in the West Playoff Standings.

In the Playoffs as mentioned, Doncic has had his moments even with the injuries but it has been the play of Irving on both ends of the hardwood while doing most of his scoring damage in the second half of games this postseason that has gotten the Mavericks in a position where they are competing for the second title in their history.

Kyrie Irving By Half             1^st Half:   6.0  PPG,  40.6 FG%, 23.8 3-Pt.%
In 2024 NBA Playoffs            2^nd Half: 15.1 PPG, 52.4 FG%, 51.9 3-Pt.%

Kyrie Irving By Half             1^st Half:   6.5  PPG, 35.9 FG%, 26.7 3-Pt.%
West First-Round                  2^nd Half: 20.0 PPG, 59.7 FG%, 52.9 3-Pt.%
Versus Clippers

Kyrie Irving By Half            1^st Half:    5.5  PPG, 46.7 FG%, 16.7 3-Pt.% 
West Semis Versus                2^nd Half:  10.2 PPG, 42.6 FG%, 50.0 3-Pt.%
Thunder  

Along with picking and choosing his spots to score, Irving, who helped the Cleveland Cavaliers captured their first and lone NBA title eight springs back has taken more pride at the defensive end along with Doncic, which has allowed the Mavericks to win games even when their offense was not humming like it was at times during the regular season.

If the Mavericks were not outscoring their opponents, especially when their efficiency from three-point range was not up to snuff, they margin for error was very small. That changed dating back to as mentioned their final 33 games of the regular season and has carried into the postseason. 

What has also helped along with the Mavericks stronger commitment to defense has been how they have shown trust in their teammates.

In the opening-round versus the Clippers, while Doncic (29.8 ppg, 9.5 apg, 8.8 rpg) and Irving (26.5 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 4.7 apg, 51.4 FG%, 44.9 3-Pt.%) were dominant scoring wise, they did incorporate their teammates to an extent with Washington (10.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg), Jones, Jr. (8.8 ppg, 56.4 FG%, 38.5 3-Pt.%), Lively II (8.8 ppg, 6.2, rpg, 75.0 FG%), and Gafford (6.2 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 46.4 FG%).

That trust level was kicked up an extra gear in the West Semis against the Thunder where Washington (17.7 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 47.6 FG%, 46.9 3-Pt.%), Jones, Jr. (12.8 ppg, 47.5 FG%, 37.0 3-Pt.%), Gafford (11.0 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 61.0 FG%), Lively II (7.7 ppg, 7.8 rpg), Hardaway, Jr., and Green (6.5 ppg, 37.0 3-Pt.%) really showed well, especially in key moments in the series.

Following their loss in Game 1 at the Thunder (117-95) on May 7, 2024 (TNT), the Mavericks took three of the next four games to position themselves to take down the Thunder in six games and Washington, playing in the postseason for the first time in his career really showed out, posting his first three career Playoff double-doubles.  

In the Game 2 victory (119-110) at the Thunder two nights later (ESPN), Washington had his first career Playoff double-double with 29 points and 11 rebounds with two steals on 11/18 shooting, including 7/11 on his triple tries. He followed that up with 27 points and six boards on 11/23 from the field, including 5/12 from three in the 105-101 victory versus the Thunder in Game 3 May 11, 2024 (ABC). Following a performance of 21 points and 12 rebounds (7/19 FGs), going 5/11 from three in the 100-96 loss Game 4 two nights later (TNT), Washington battled through foul trouble to post his third double-double of the series with 10 points and 10 rebounds in the Game 5 victory (104-92) at the Thunder May 15, 2024 (TNT).

Following a quiet first three quarters in Game 6 series clincher (117-116) last Saturday evening due to foul trouble again, Washington registered nine points and three boards on 2/4 from three and 3/5 from the foul line in the fourth quarter, including making two out of three free throws after Doncic in the final seconds found him in the left corner for a three-pointer that he got fouled on by Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

After a quiet beginning in the West Semis, Jones, Jr. closed out things strong beginning with a then Playoff career-high of 17 points with four block shots on 7/12 shooting in the aforementioned Game 4 defeat. He followed that up with a new Playoff career-high of 19 points on 7/9 from the field, including 3/5 from three. In the Game 6 clincher, Jones, Jr. scored a new Playoff career-high of 22 points on 8/13 shooting including 4/5 on his triple tries. He scored half of his points in Game 6 in the third quarter going 3/3 from three. 

The Mavericks consolation prize for missing the Playoffs last spring was keeping their Lottery pick which they used on Lively II, No. 12 overall out of Duke University.

Coming off the bench for most of the regular season, the rookie big man had his moments totaling eight double-doubles.

Lively II was solid in the opening-round against the Clippers scoring in double-figures in three of the final four games of the series. He followed that pattern in the Semis against the Thunder particularly at the end where he closed out the series with consecutive double-doubles. Lively II had 11 points and 10 boards in the Game 5 win and followed that up with 12 points and 15 rebounds, also off the bench in the Game 6 clincher.

What made Lively II really stand out at the close of the West Semis is that when the Thunder intentionally fouled him and sent him to the foul line in the fourth quarter, he made his free throws going 8/12 in Game 3; 5/6 in Game 5; and 2/3 in Game 6.

The Timberwolves have been making their own noise this postseason after registering the second-best season in their history in terms of victories with 57. Their best season was 58 wins in 2003-04, the first time in their history they had the best record in the Western Conference.

In the 2024 Playoffs, the Wolves locked horns with the No. 6 Seeded Phoenix Suns (49-33) and their perennial All-Star trio of Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Bradley Beal.

The Suns took all three regular-season meetings over the Timberwolves, winning by an average of 15.6 points.

The tables were turned rather quickly in their Quarterfinal tilt as the Timberwolves swept the Suns 4-0, winning by an average of 15 points.

In tangling with the defending NBA champions and the No. 2 Seeded Denver Nuggets (57-25), who tied a franchise-record with the 57 wins in the regular season and waxed off the Los Angeles Lakers 4-1 in the opening-round, the Wolves snatched home court advantage away taking Game 1 (106-99) May 4, 2024 (TNT) and followed that up with a defensive masterpiece of a 106-80 triumph in Game 2 two days later (TNT).

The Nuggets however showed their championship fortitude winning Games 3 (117-90) and 4 (115-107) at the Timberwolves respectively May 10, 2024 (ESPN) and May 12, 2024 (TNT). That was followed by a 112-97 win in Game 5 back at the Nuggets two nights later (TNT) that put the defending champs one win away from a return to the West Finals.

The Wolves, who were on their first three-game losing streak all season won Game 6 (115-70) last Thursday night (ESPN) to tie the series 3-3, registering their largest margin of victory in a Playoff game in their franchise history. 

After falling behind by 15 points at the half (53-38) and down 20 (58-38) early in the third quarter, the Wolves outscored the Nuggets 60-32 the rest of the way and won Game 7 (98-90) last Sunday night (TNT) to knock out the defending champion Nuggets on their home floor.

Leading the way for head coach Chris Finch’s squad has Edwards (28.9 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 5.9 apg, 1.7 spg, 50.4 FG%, 39.8 3-Pt.%), who took out his childhood idol Kevin Durant, and then ousted the aforementioned the now three-time Kia MVP and fellow perennial All-Star in Jokic.

During this postseason run, Edwards, a former No. 1 overall pick in 2020 out of the University of Georgia has produced five 30-plus point games, including three games of 40-plus points.

The Wolves ride to the West Finals has not been a one-person show. It has been the play of the All-Star front court duo of Karl-Anthony Towns (18.8 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 51.7 FG%, 44.0 3-Pt.%), and center Rudy Gobert (12.2 ppg, 10.9 rpg, 60.9 FG%), who the Wolves acquired from the Utah Jazz for a large number of draft picks in summer of 2022.

Veteran lead guard Mike Conley (11.3 ppg, 6.5 apg, 41.2 3-Pt.%) has given the Wolves steadiness and calm when it has been required.

Starting forward Jaden McDaniels (12.4 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 50.5 FG%) has been solid offensively with his perimeter stroke, especially from three-point range while being a menace defensively against the opposing team’s best perimeter player.

Fan favorite in Naz Reid (10.4 ppg, 44.7 FG%), the 2023-24 Kia Sixth Man of the Year winner and Nickeil Alexander-Walker (9.0 ppg) have been major contributors off the bench.

It has all started though with Edwards’ magnificence so far this postseason, which has gone beyond his boxscore. It has been his leadership and confidence that he has shown on both ends and how he has raised the level of his teammates through his words and actions.

In two out of the four games that he scored under 20 points, the Wolves have won.  

In the 105-93 win by the Wolves in Game 2 of the opening-round versus the Suns on Apr. 23, 2024 (TNT), Edwards scored just 15 points on 3/12 shooting, including 2/6 from three but was 7/8 at the foul line. McDaniels, who made his Playoff debut after missing the postseason last year with a broken hand picked up the slack that night with a postseason highs of 25 points and eight boards on 10/17 shooting. 

In the Wolves Game 6 win versus the Nuggets that kept their season alive, McDaniels scored 21 points with two blocks on 8/10 from the floor and 3/5 from three. He followed that up with 23 points, six boards and two steals on 7/10 from the field and 3/4 in the Game 7 series clincher at the Nuggets.  

Back in 2015 when the Wolves selected Towns No. 1 overall out of the University of Kentucky, he was expected to lead the Wolves to this current moment alongside former No. 1 overall pick Andrew Wiggins, the No. 1 overall pick the year before out of the University of Kansas.

While both players had some individual success capturing Rookie of the Year in their seasons in 2014 and 2015 respectively, they only led the Wolves to the postseason only once (2018) as teammates.

Having to turn the keys over in terms of the face of the franchise is not easy and considering how things have gone for Towns in his time with the Wolves it would be understandable if he wanted a fresh start elsewhere. Instead he has embraced Edwards and the two have worked well together in trying to get the Wolves to the promise land it has sure paid off this postseason.

In closing out the Suns in their house in the opening-round, Towns posted double-doubles of 18 points and 13 rebounds on 7/16 shooting, including 3/5 from three in the Game 3 victory (126-109) Apr. 26, 2024 (ESPN). Edwards in that victory led the way with 36 points, nine rebounds, and five assists, with two steals o n12/23 from the field and 11/11 at the foul line.

Towns followed that up with 28 points and 10 rebounds on 11/17 shooting, including 4/6 from three in the Game 4 clinching victory (122-116) two nights later (TNT). That complimented Edwards’ then Playoff career-high of 40 points with nine boards, six assists and two blocks on 13/23 shooting, including 7/13 from three and 7/10 at the foul line.

In the Wolves victory in Game 2 of the West Semis at the Nuggets, Edwards had 27 points with seven assists, and two steals on 11/17 shooting. Towns had another double-double with 27 points and 12 rebounds, with two blocks on 10/15 shooting, including 3/5 from three.

In the Game 6 win versus the Nuggets, Edwards had 27 points with three steals on 8/17 shooting including 4/9 from three and 7/8 at the charity stripe. Towns had his fifth double-double of the postseason of 10 points and 13 boards with five assists.

In the previously mentioned Game 7 win at the Nuggets last Sunday night, Edwards struggled scoring just 16 points on 6/24 shooting, including 2/10 from three. He did have eight rebounds and seven assists, with two steals. It was Towns who picked up the scoring slack with his second straight double-double of 23 points and 12 boards and two steals on 8/14 shooting.

When the Wolves acquired Gobert, who won his fourth Kia Defensive Player of the Year earlier this month, he was expected to anchor one of the best defenses in the NBA. That was not the case last season but it has been this season and for much of this postseason.

While the shot blocking has not been at the level it was in his seasons with the Jazz, Gobert has been a solid rim protector and rebounder for the Wolves this postseason, posting six games of double-digit rebounds and four double-doubles.

He and Towns have found a connectiveness that they did not have a season ago because Towns missed a lot of games (52) with a serious calf strain. That connectivity particularly defensively is a big reason why the Wolves registered the second most wins in a regular season in their history and how they took down the defending NBA champions.

One big reason the Timberwolves are in this position of being four wins away from appearing in The Finals is their lead guard in Conley, who they acquired last season from the Jazz.

He has brought not just a steadiness in his time so far in the “Twin Cities,” has been a comfort to Coach Finch to where he can steady things when called upon.

That steady hand was not available in the Wolves defeat (112-97) in Game 5 May 14, 2024 (TNT) as Conley was on the shelf with a sore right Achilles.

Conley was good to go in Games 6 and 7 and played a major role in the Wolves winning both contest to clinch the series. He had 13 points and five assists on 3/6 from three in Game 6 and 10 points with eight boards on 3/5 from three in Game 7. In both victories, he had no turnovers.

While the Wolves on three of the four regular season meetings against the Mavericks, it occurred before the Mavericks acquired Gafford and Washington.

How things go in the paint on both ends of the floor will play a major role in who wins this West Finals.

For the Wolves, it is imperative that Towns, who his prone to committing foolish fouls stays out of foul trouble. That he brings a ferociousness on the glass while making his presence felt offensively in the paint while occasionally pulling the likes of Gafford and Washington out from the paint with his three-point shooting.

Defensively, the Wolves rank No. 4 in opponent’s points (99.6); No. 5 in steals at 7.3 and No. 8 in blocks at 4.7. They are ranked No. 6 in opponents field goal percentage (45.7%) and No. 10 in opponents three-point percentage (35.7%). That defense has led to the Wolves scoring 17.1 points off their opponent’s turnovers, No. 2 so far this postseason. 

Behind that defense, the Wolves have rallied in four of the seven games that they trailed at intermission of their 11 games played so far this postseason, highlighted by their aforementioned historic comeback on Sunday night in Game 7 at the Nuggets.  

When it comes to trying to slow down Doncic, who averaged 36.5 points and 10.5 assists against the Wolves in the four regular season tilts, that will be up to McDaniels and Edwards, who also said that he will guard Irving, who missed three of the four matchups due to injury.

The one game Irving played against the Wolves, he scored 35 points with eight rebounds, five assists, three steals, and two blocks on 14/27 shooting, including 6/8 from three in the Mavericks 115-108 triumph on Jan. 7, 2024. Also, Doncic in the victory scored 34 with eight assists and six rebounds on 12/26 from the field, including 6/7 from three.

The attention both Doncic and Irving will draw will leave the likes of Jones, Jr., Washington, and Hardaway, Jr. open on the perimeter and they have shown throughout this postseason that if they can get hot from the perimeter, especially from three-point range, that is how they got separation from the Clippers and Thunder.

For Gobert, it comes down to him also feasting on the defensive and offensive glass and finishing off of dives to the basket off the attention that Edwards and at times Towns attract from Mavericks’ defense.

From an offensive standpoint, it will be up to McDaniels, Alexander-Walker, Edwards, and Conley to keep the Mavericks defense honest by making shots from the perimeter consistently.

So far through two rounds, the Wolves shot 35.8 percent from three, No. 8 in the league and are No. 5 in overall field goal percentage this postseason at 47.2 percent.

For the Mavericks, they will have to continue being the defensive squad that they have been to this point, while also continuing to be active on the offensive and defensive glass.

They have so far through two rounds ranking No. 5 overall in rebounding (43.8), while ranking No. 3 in offensive boards (12.1), which has resulted in them being N. 3 in Second Chance Points (15.0).

So far this postseason, the Mavericks have registered four games with 14 offensive boards.

Defensively, the Mavericks through two rounds ranked No. 5 in opponent’s points (103.2); No. 7 in steals (6.4) and tied No. 7 with Cleveland Cavaliers in blocks (5.0).  

The Western Conference will have a new representative in the NBA Finals in two weeks from now. Both the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Dallas Mavericks have strong cases for being that squad fighting for the Larry O’Brien trophy.

The Mavericks have a rising star in Luka Doncic, who has a sidekick in Kyrie Irving who knows what it takes to win at this stage in the Playoffs. They have a head coach in Jason Kidd, who 13 years prior alongside Dirk Nowitzki led the Mavericks to their first and only title. The Mavericks have shown they can bounce back from defeat, going 4-0 following a loss so far this postseason.

For the Timberwolves, they have a rising star in Anthony Edwards, whose play has many predicting he will be the next face of “The Association.” They have players in Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert, who are playing for a chance at The Finals for the first time after many years of disappointment. More than that, they have homecourt and have shown in this postseason, they can win away from Target Center going 5-1 on the road.  

You have two teams that are peaking at the right time with star players that are primed to take this league by storm moving forward.

Prediction: Timberwolves in seven games

Information, statistics, and quotations courtesy of 5/20/2024 www.nba.com story, “West Finals Preview: What To Expect In Timberwolves-Mavericks Series,” By Michael C. Wright and John Schuhmann; 5/21/2024 www.nba.com story, “NBA Playoffs: 12 Biggest Difference-Makers In Conference Finals,” By Michael C. Wright; https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/2024-nba-western-conference-semifinals-mavericks-vs-thunder.html; https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001%E2%80%9302_NBA_season; https://www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/3945274/luka-doncic;  https://www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/4278078/pj-washington;  https://www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/4683688/dereck-lively-ii;  https://www.landofbasketball.com/head_to_head_gl/mavericks_vs_timberwolves_game_log_pl.htm; and https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/200405190MIN.html.