Tuesday, May 7, 2024

J-Speaks; 2024 Eastern Conference Semifinals Preview: Celtics Versus Cavaliers

 

(1)   Boston Celtics versus (4) Cleveland Cavaliers
         (64-18)                                 (48-34)

Season Series: Celtics Won 2-1
Playoff History: BOS def CLE 4-2 1976 Eastern Conference Finals
                            BOS def CLE 3-1 1985 Eastern Conference Quarterfinals
                            CLE def BOS 4-3 1992 Eastern Conference Semifinals
                            BOS def CLE 4-3 2008 Eastern Conference Semifinals
                            BOS def CLE 4-2 2010 Eastern Conference Semifinals
                            CLE def BOS 4-0 2015 Eastern Conference Quarterfinals
                            CLE def BOS 4-1 2017 Eastern Conference Finals
                            CLE def BOS 4-3 2018 Eastern Conference Finals

In order to reach the mountain top of any sport, which is winning that respective sport’s championship, you more often than not have to go through a certain opponent in order to get there. That has certainly been the case when the boys from “Beantown,” who have 17 NBA titles to their credit, tied with the arch-rivals from “Hollywood” for the most in NBA history and the boys from “The Land,” whose lone NBA title came in spring of 2016. The two squads face off again with the boys from “Beantown,” trying to get one step closer to competing for championship banner No. 18, while the boys from “The Land” are trying to build on winning their first postseason series without a certain four-time Kia MVP on the roster in nearly three decades.

For the Boston Celtics, they entered the 2024 NBA Playoffs as the prohibitive favorite to win it all based on their league-leading 64 wins and how they dominated not just the Eastern Conference but the entire National Basketball Association (NBA).

While they got a scare in Game 2 of their opening-round series against the No. 8 Seeded Miami Heat, falling 111-101 Apr. 24, 2024 (TNT) after winning Game 1 in 114-94 (ABC) three days earlier, the Celtics dominated the Heat the next three games, winning by 20 (104-84) Apr. 27, 2024 (TNT) and by 14 (102-88) Apr. 29, 2024 (TNT) in Games 3 and 4 on the Heat’s home turf. They closed the door on the Heat’s season with a 118-84 triumph to start May (TNT).

Headlining head coach Joe Mazzulla’s squad is the perennial All-Star duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, who were magnificent in the opening-round versus the Heat, who crushed their championship dreams in the 2023 East Finals in seven games, where they dropped the first three games of the series, including the first two at home.

Tatum in the First-Round versus the Heat, registered a double-double in four of the five games, averaging 21.8 points and 10.4 rebounds with 5.4 assists, overcoming a rough shooting series, connecting on 41.6 percent from the field and just 29 percent from three-point range.

Brown was solid leading the Celtics in scoring versus the Heat with 22.8 points and seven boards on 52.2 percent from the floor but just 32.2 percent from three.

One Celtic that really emerged in the First-Round versus the Heat was six-year pro Derrick White, who went from averaging career-highs of 15.2 points on 46.1 percent from the field and 39.6 percent from three in the regular season to averaging 22.4 points on 57.7 percent from the floor and 47.7 percent from three.

White was especially remarkable the final two games of the opening-round where he scored an overall career-high of 38 points with three block shots on 15/26 from the field and 8/15 from three. White’s eight threes made in Game 4 not only tied a career-best in any game, it tied the second most in a Playoff game in Celtics history. 

The former San Antonio Spur scored 16 points on 6/8 from the field, including 4/5 from three in the opening period and had 22 points on 8/13 shooting and 6/9 from three in the opening half.

Most Points Without A Free Throw Attempt In Single-Game NBA Postseason History
Chuck Person (1991) 39 Points W/Pacers
Derrick White (2024) 38 Points W/Celtics
Russell Westbrook (2023) 37 Points W/Clippers
Lou Hudson (1970) 36 Points W/St. Louis Hawks

White followed up that performance scoring 25 points with five boards on 8/13 shooting, including 5/10 from three. His 13 total triples made in Games 4 and 5, the most in a two-game span in the storied franchise postseason history of the Celtics.

The Celtics took two of the three regular season tilts between them and the Cavaliers, winning both contests of a two-game set in Boston Dec. 12, 2023 (120-113) and Dec. 14, 2023 (116-107) respectively.

In the first tilt, the Celtics overcame a 15-point deficit for the victory, going 26/26 at the charity stripe.

The second win of the two-game set came behind the solid performance by Tatum who scored 25 points with 11 rebounds and a season-high three blocks. Brown chipped in with 22 points, five boards and two steals on 10/20 shooting.

Tatum versus the Cavs during the regular season averaged 26 points and 11.3 rebounds despite shooting just 38.7 percent from the field but 35.7 percent from three.

The Celtics will enter this series short-handed as starting center Kristaps Porzingis, who injured his right calf in the Game 4 victory and likely is out for this series.

That takes away not only the Celtics best low-post threat who can also stretch the floor with his three-point shooting. He averaged 12.3 points, five rebounds, and 1.5 blocks in four games played in the First-Round against the Heat on 40 percent from three.

“It’s something, not nothing, so it will take a little bit of time, for sure,” Porzingis said of is calf injury. “But I’m doing everything I can to speed it up because I want to be back out there as soon as possible. But understanding, like, the worst thing would be probably to reaggravate that. So being smart.”

“You would have to ask the medical people about the specifics of it. I’m kind of just following the plan. But I’m hoping for a return as soon as I start to get better.”

Not having Porzingis though is something the Celtics had to navigate during the regular season.

Celtics In    W/Porzingis                      W/O Porzingis
2023-24          43-14            Record            21-4
                        120.1             PPG              121.6
                        109.1          Opp PPG         109.4
                        49%               FG%             48%
                        38%              3-Pt.%           40%

Overall, the Celtics counting the Game 5 win versus the Heat are 22-4 without Porzingis on the season, including 10-3 against teams that made the 2024 Playoffs.

Patrolling the paint for the Celtics in the absence of Porzingis will be veteran big man Al Horford, Luke Kornet, and Xavier Tillman, who have proven more than capable of manning the paint, especially Horford.

Dating back to the regular season, the Celtics went 27-7 when Horford has started (26-7 mark in the regular season), which includes a 15-1 mark in the last 16 times Horford has started.

While protecting the paint will be important for the Celtics, what will be even more important will be mixing up their offensive attack from shooting from three and attacking the basket.

During the regular season, the Celtics outscored their opponents by a league-high 10.7 points from three-point range. In the opening-round against the Heat, the Celtics outscored the boys from “South Beach” by a plus-11.4. 

In Game 1 versus the Heat, the Celtics made a single-game franchise Playoff record 22 threes, going 22/49 on their triple tries. In the Game 2 loss when they scored just 40 points in the second half, the Celtics shot just 12/32 on their triples, while the Heat made a franchise single-game Playoff record 23 triples, going 23/43 from three.

That means Tatum and Brown along with White, Jrue Holiday, Sam Hauser, and Payton Pritchard will have to make sure they mix it up offensively from shooting from three and getting to the foul line through post ups or attacking the basket.

For the Cavaliers, this postseason has already been a success by earning their first postseason series win since 2018, the last of the second stint of now four-time Kia MVP LeBron James when they took down the No. 5 Seeded Orlando Magic in seven games.

That First-Round series victory also represented the first without James on the roster since 1993, where they took down the then New Jersey (now Brooklyn) Nets in five games. It was also their first in a best-of-seven series without James on the roster since they defeated ironically enough the Celtics in the 1992 East Semis. The Cavs led by then All-Stars Mark Price, Brad Daugherty, Larry Nance, Sr. and then reserve in the late John "Hot Rod" Williams in seven games, ending the Hall of Fame career of three-time NBA champion Larry Bird. 

Head Coach J.B. Bickerstaff’s team last season, after winning 51 games in 2022-23, lost in embarrassing fashion in the opening-round versus the New York Knicks 4-1.

It took the Cavs as mentioned seven games to defeat the Magic in the First-Round, where all four of their victories in the best-of-seven series came in the comfy confides of Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse.

“I mean, this is always, you know, definitely a special moment, you know for this group in particular whose been through so much this year,” Coach Bickerstaff said of his team’s series win over the Magic, which also was their fourth straight Game 7 victory dating back to 2018.

“A group whose been, you know, left for dead multiple times by a lot of people this year. You know for them to come together in this moment and figure it out. It’s more about the group than it is, you know, me. And I think we’re most proud of that. But you know we’re not done. We’ve got a ways to go.”

Leading the Cavs into the Second-Round for the first time in six seasons was their perennial All-Star headliner Donovan Mitchell, who in the Game 7 series clinching victory (106-94) on Sunday afternoon scored 39 points with nine rebounds and five assists on 11/27 from the field and 15/17 at the foul line.

He overcame a rough shooting first half going 3/13 from the floor, including 0/5 from three scoring 15 points on 9/10 at the foul line.   

That performance was on the heels of 50 points on 22/36 from the field in the Game 6 loss at the Magic (103-96) on Friday night (ESPN). Mitchell was the only Cavs player to score in the final 14 minutes of Game 6 scoring the final 22 points, including all 18 of the team’s points in the fourth quarter.

To put this into clearer context, Mitchell was 7/13 from the field in the final period. The rest of the team was 0/6 from the field with six turnovers.

Things did not look good for the Cavs in Game 7 as they trailed by as many as 18 in the first half of Game 7. The Cavs used a 12-4 run to close within 53-43 at the half and outscored the Magic 63-41 in the second half, where they led by as many as 14.

Mitchell starting backcourt teammate Darius Garland, who had 21 points with seven assists on 10/17 shooting in Game 6 overcame a two-point effort on 1/9 shooting the first three quarters on Sunday scored 10 points on 5/6 from the foul line in the fourth quarter.

Caris LeVert, who struggled for much of the opening-round against the Magic scored 15 with five boards off the bench. Max Strus scored 13, hitting 3/6 from three.

“We showed a lot of fight,” LeVert after the Game 7 victory. “We showed what we’ve been showing all year long. We just kept fighting.”

“We’ve been there several times this year, not just games, but just as a unit. We’ve been banged up. We’ve been injured. But we got a next-man-up mentality and we just never quit.”  

Evan Mobley had a strong double-double in the Game 7 win with 11 points and 16 rebounds with five block shots.

In the Cavs loan victory over the Celtics during the regular season (105-104) Mar. 5, 2024 (TNT), they overcame a 22-point deficit in the fourth quarter, outscoring the Celtics 34-17 in the final period.

Mitchell, who was on the shelf that night because of a knee injury, and Mobley was lost in the third quarter because of an ankle sprain, reserve Dean Wade led the way with 23 points off the bench with eight boards on 8/11 shooting, including 6/9 from three. He scored 20 of those 23 points in the fourth quarter.

Garland, despite going 6/20 from the floor in that victory, had a double-double with 16 points and 11 assists, including going 3/8 from three. LeVert added 10 points with five assists and three steals off the bench in the victory.

For the Cavs to have a chance of pulling off the upset over the mighty Celtics, they will need Mitchell, who has scored at least 30 points in 23 out of his 51 career Playoff games to not only score at an efficient level but facilitate for his teammates.

Mitchell’s 23 games scoring at least 30 in his postseason career is one shy of Tatum (24 out of 99 career Playoff games) for No. 9 amongst active players.

In the two-game set in “Beantown,” where the Cavs went 0-2 as previously mentioned, Mitchell averaged 30 points with 7.3 rebounds, and 5.3 assists on 50 percent from the floor, but just 33.3 percent from three.   

While Mitchell averaged 28.7 points with five rebounds and 4.4 assists in the First-Round versus the Magic on 45.5 percent shooting, he only shot 25 percent on his triple tries. He made up for that by getting to the foul line 7.3 times and shot 82.4 percent on those attempts.

“You know, we can be better,” Mitchell said after the Game 7 victory over the Magic. “I hate to be that guy. But like, you know, this was great. This was phenomenal. A great win. Great series. Great test for us mentally, physically but, you know, we can and we will have to be better to beat Boston. No disrespect to Orlando because they’re a phenomenal team with a lot of great guys. But you know, I feel like this was just big for us as a group. But we really don’t have time to celebrate.”

He did close the series in style totaling 89 points, the second most in Game 6 and 7 of a best-of-seven series in NBA Playoff History. Mitchell in last two games of the series versus the Magic shot 33/63 from the field but was just 5/17 from three-point range.

Being efficient with his offense and facilitating for his teammates will be important for Mitchell and the Cavs because the Celtics will be throwing a plethora of defenders from perennial All-Defensive selection in Holiday, White, Brown, and even Tatum at times.

“This is why I’m here. It’s my job,” Mitchell said following the Game 7 win versus the Magic on Sunday. “I don’t mean this as disrespectful, but it doesn't really mean much. We didn’t come in just to win the First-Round. We accomplished one goal, now we have to do it again. That’s the mindset.”

That means Garland, LeVert, Strus, Isaac Okoro, Sam Merrill, and Georges Niang will have to be efficient from the perimeter if they will have any offensive success against an elite defensive team in the Celtics.

Garland, who averaged just 14.9 points and 5.4 assists in the opening-round versus the Magic on 44.9 percent from the floor and 40 percent from three-point range will need to play with the same offensive aggression that he did in the fourth period on Sunday.

Like the Celtics, the Cavs will be without their starting center to start this series I Jarrett Allen, who has been on the shelf the final three games of the opening-round with a rib injury that was reaggravated in Game 4 after taking an elbow from the Magic’s Franz Wagner in the third quarter.

Allen is coming off a career-year in the regular season behind averages of 16.5 points and 10.5 rebounds on 63.4 percent shooting (4th NBA) and followed that up with averages of 17 points and 13.8 boards on 67.6 percent shooting in four games in the First-Round against the Magic.

That puts the spotlight on Mobley, who had his ups-and-downs during the regular season. He has shown over his first three NBA seasons the ability to control the paint on both ends. But he will have to do it at a high level in the Semis against the Celtics. In the opening-round against the Magic, Mobley averaged 12.1 points, 9.1 rebounds and three blocks on 47.9 percent from the field. Those stats will have to rise if the Cavs will have a chance to compete against the Celtics. 

He especially will have to be the Cavs anchor at the defensive end, where they ranked in the Top 10 in points allowed during the regular season and were No. 2 in opponent’s field goal percentage at 42 percent during the regular season.

“We know who we are-a team that’s a contender,” Mitchell said. "We did what we’re supposed to do. In the grand scheme of it all, we just took seven games. So, for us coming into Boston, I’m pretty sure everybody thinks they’re going to com in and kick our ass. We just need to be who we are.”

Yes, they are facing a much healthier team than their opening-round opponent. Yes, they are without their starting man in the middle. But the Celtics still have their star duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. A strong supporting cast in Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, Al Horford, Sam Hauser, and Payton Pritchard.

The Celtics also have the most important thing going for them, motivation of finally breaking through and winning a title, which they have yet to do only making it to the Finals once (2022) and reaching the East Finals in five of the previous seven seasons.

They have proven to be the best team in the league this season. They have the team to win title No. 18 and it is their time to get the job done. They also have the motivation to play better at home having gone just 14-14 in the postseason at TD Garden over the past two-plus springs. They did go a remarkable 37-4 during the regular season on the home floor. 

The Cavaliers are a good team that has a star player in Donovan Mitchell who has proven on any given night he can light up the scoreboard. The Cavs have proven they can slow down some of the best offenses in the league over the past three seasons.

They have yet to prove they can score at an efficient rate to keep up with the likes of the Celtics. Also, their supporting cast outside of Mitchell, Niang, and Strus, and little used Tristan Thompson has gone this deep into the NBA season.

The Cavs, after flaming out in the opening-round against the Knicks got over the hump of winning a Playoff round for the first time in half-a-dozen springs. But the Celtics have the more balanced squad who as mentioned are on a mission to win their first title since 2008.

Prediction: Celtics in five games.  

Information, statistics, and quotations are courtesy of 4/30/2024 1 a.m. ESPN’s “Sportscenter With Scott Van Pelt” from Washington, D.C. With Tim Legler; 4/30/2024 & 5/2/2024 12:30 a.m. “Inside the NBA,” TNT, presented by Kia With Ernie Johnson, Kenny Smith, Charles Barkley, Shaquille O’Neal; 5/1/2024 7 p.m. “TNT NBA Tip-Off,” presented by Carmax With Ernie Johnson, Kenny Smith, Charles Barkley, Shaquille O’Neal; 5/2/2024 1 a.m. ESPN’s “Sportscenter” from Los Angeles, CA with Linda Cohn and Stan Verrett; 5/5/2024 9:30 p.m. NBATV’s “Playoff Central Live,” With Lauren Jbara, Steve Smith, and Dennis Scott; 5/5/2024 www.nba.com story, “NBA Playoffs: What To Expect In Celtics-Cavaliers Series,” By John Schuhmann; 5/7/2024 6:30 p.m. "TNT NBA Tip-Off," presented by Carmax With Ernie Johnson, Kenny Smith, Charles Barkley, Shaquille O'Neal, Stephanie Ready; http://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore/_/gameid/401588514; https://www.landofbasketball.com/head_to_head_gl/cavaliers_vs_celtics_game_log_pl.htm; https://www.espn.com/nba/player/splits/_/id/4065648; https://www.espn.com/nba/player/splits/_/3908809/donovan-mitchell; https://www.nba.com/game/cle-vs-bos-0042300201; https://www.espn.com/nba/team/stats/_/name/cle/cleveland-cavaliers; and https://www.espn.com/nba/team/stats/_/bos/boston-celtics.  

No comments:

Post a Comment