J-Speaks: Milwaukee Bucks versus Miami Heat: East Semifinals Preview

 

After some shaky moments in the restart in Orlando and a falling in Game 1 of their opening-round tilt against the team from Walt Disney World, the No. 1 Seed in the East the Milwaukee Bucks found themselves, and finished off their opponent and sent them home for the offseason. Their Semifinals tilt against the team from South Beach though will not be easy sledding as they try to get one step closer to becoming NBA champions.

The Bucks next opponent in the Miami Heat is not the Orlando Magic, who they took down the final four games of the series, after dropping the opener of their last series to win it 4-1.

They were able to not only shake off some bad play in the Game 1 loss (122-110) against the Magic, but they got back to playing their style of basketball, which they did not do a lot of in going 3-5 in the seeding games.

In the Miami Heat, who swept their First-Round opponent in the Indiana Pacers 4-0 are a team that is tough, aggressive, and is not afraid of the Bucks or the reigning Kia MVP and recently named 2020 Kia Defensive Player of the Year in Giannis Antetokounmpo, who averaged 30.6 points, 16.0 rebounds and six assists on 59.0 percent shooting against the Magic.

During the regular season, the Heat won two of the three regular season matchups against the Bucks in impressive fashion in the spoiling the Bucks home opener 131-126 in overtime on Oct. 26, 2019 and on Mar. 2 105-89 on Mar. 2 in Miami on NBATV.

The Bucks in their lone win on Aug. 6 (130-116) on TNT, the Heat did not have five-time All-Star Jimmy Butler or reserve All-Star guard Goran Dragic in the lineup because of injury.

The Heat though are brimming with confidence after their aforementioned opening-round sweep of the Pacers led by Dragic (22.8 ppg, 5.0 apg, 48.0 FG%, 41.4 3-Pt.% against/ Pacers) and Butler (19.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 2.5 spg, 57.1 3-Pt.% against/Pacers).

As good as Butler and Dragic were against the Pacers, the play of the youngsters in rookie Tyler Herro (16.5 ppg, 45.8 FG%, 36.4 3-Pt.% against/Pacers), Kia Most Improved Player candidate Bam Adebayo (15.0 ppg, 11.3 rpg, 5.3 apg, 47.9 FG% against/Pacers), and Duncan Robinson (12.5 ppg, 46.9 FG%, 44.4 3-Pt.% against/Pacers), and veteran Jae Crowder (9.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg) are why the Heat feel like they are going to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.

While the current starting quintet of Dragic, Butler, Robinson, Crowder, and Adebayo did not start a game against the Bucks in their three regular season tilts, they played nine minutes in the Mar. 2 matchup and were a plus-nine on the floor together.

That lineup should be effective against a Bucks defense that will give up three-point shots to their opposition, which in this case the Heat shot 43.3 percent from three-point range against the top seed in the East, the best in the league against the Bucks during the regular season. The Heat made on average 18.3 triples in the three games against the Bucks, compared to the 13.0 three-pointers the Bucks made against the Heat.

Also, the Heat averaged 29.7 assists in the three meetings, while the Bucks averaged just 22.7 assists.

That is why it will be important for the Bucks that Khris Middleton (15.0 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 5.2 apg, 37.5 3-Pt.% against/Magic), who shot just 36.1 percent from the field in the opening-round against the Magic; Brook Lopez (13.4 ppg, 53.8 FG%, 36.0 3-Pt.% against/Magic); and Eric Bledsoe (11.6 ppg, 6.6 apg against/Magic), who shot just 27.8 percent from three-point range really supply secondary scoring with what Antetokounmpo will do.

The Bucks, who went 36-5 against the rest of the Eastern Conference compared to their 1-2 mark against the Heat during the regular season will also need consistent production from George Hill (9.2 ppg, 52.0 FG%, 40.0 3-Pt.%), Wesley Matthews (8.2 ppg, 42.9 3-Pt.%), Kyle Korver (7.8 ppg, 37.5 3-Pt.%), Pat Connaughton, Marvin Williams, Donte DiVincenzo, and Robin Lopez on both ends.

That consistent production will make life a lot easier for Antetokounmpo, who will get a lot of defensive attention from the Heat defensively, whether they play him straight up first with the 6-foot-9 first time All-Star in Adebayo and forward Derrick Jones, Jr., who will bring the energy, athleticism and defensive focus.

While the Heat will build the so-called wall in the paint that the Raptors used very effectively in the 2019 Eastern Conference Finals, the question for them is can they do it for an entire series. 

The other key matchup in this series is Butler versus Middleton, who both carry major responsibilities for their respective teams on both ends.

Butler along with Dragic have proven to be the Heat’s go-to guys offensively, especially in the fourth quarter, which they demonstrated against the Pacers in opening-round.

While Butler may spend some time guarding Antetokounmpo, he will be right in the shooting pocket of the Bucks No. 2 offensive threat in Middleton.

Both the Milwaukee Bucks and the Miami Heat like to defend the paint and protect the basket, preferring to have their opponent beat them from the perimeter. The Bucks have thrived playing that way the last two regular seasons, and earned the East best record, but the Heat bring into this serious some sharp-shooters in Duncan Robinson, Jae Crowder, Tyler Herro, Kelly Olynyk and Goran Dragic that will put the Bucks defensive philosophy to the test. The Bucks perimeter shooting in comparison is very streaky, specifically when George Hill and Kyle Korver are not on the floor.

If the Bucks are streak in this series from the perimeter, the Heat can really focus on putting the clamps on Antetokounmpo’s drives in the paint.

That being said, the Bucks after what happened in last season’s Eastern Conference Finals where they lost four straight to the eventual NBA champion Toronto Raptors in six games and Giannis Antetokounmpo’s jump shot, particularly from three-point range getting better and better should be enough to get the Bucks past the Heat in seven games.

Information, statistics, and quotations are courtesy of 8/24/2020 11:30 p.m. “Inside the NBA,” presented by Kia on TNT with Ernie Johnson, Kenny Smith, Charles Barkley, and Shaquille O’Neal; 8/292/2020 www.nba.com story, “Series Preview: Can Bam Adebayo, Heat Slow Down Giannis?” by Steve Aschburner; https://www.espn.com/nb/team/stats/_/name/mil; and https://www.espn.com/nb/team/stats/_/name/mia.