J-Speaks: 2020 Western Conference Semifinals Preview

 

While it took one L.A. squad one more game to get past their First-Round playoff opponent, the other L.A. took care of their tilt rather easily after dropping the opening game. Now both squads from the “City of Angels” gear up for their next opponent in the Western Conference Semifinals trying to get one step closer to competing for the league’s ultimate prize next month

(1)   Los Angeles Lakers versus (4) Houston Rockets

        (52-19)                                   (44-28)

Regular Season Series: Rockets won 2-1.

Playoff Series History: Lakers lead all-time 4-2; Last Meeting: Lakers defeated the Rockets 4-3 in the 2009 Western Conference Semifinals.

Contrasting styles; a match of two former Kia MVPs versus a four-time Kia MVP are the headlines of this Semifinals tilt between the boys from Hollywood versus “Clutch City,” trying to get one more step closer to competing for the Larry O’Brien trophy.

The Los Angeles Lakers after dropping the opener of their opening-round series, made short work of the No. 8 Seeded Portland Trail Blazers after that winning the next four games by an average of 15 points to take the series in five games.

Their next opponent in the Houston Rockets, who defeated them 2-1 in the regular season series, bring their small-ball lineup that revolves around not just their high volume shooting from three-point range, but a much stingier defense that really showed itself in the winner-take-all Game 7 versus the No. 5 Seeded Oklahoma City Thunder.

This series as TNT’s “Inside the NBA” host and Hall of Famer Charles Barkley pointed out earlier in the week the Lakers present the “ultimate test of that small ball” given that the Lakers bring three talented big men to the table in this series in perennial All-Star Anthony Davis (29.8 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 1.6 bpg, 57.3 FG%, 38.9 3-Pt.% vs. Trail Blazers), eight-time All-Star and three-time Kia Defensive Player of the Year Dwight Howard (8.4 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 62.1 FG% vs. Trail Blazers), and JaVale McGee (6.0 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 71.4 FG% vs. Trail Blazers).

On top of that, the Lakers have the four-time MVP and three-time NBA champion on their side in LeBron James, who averaged a triple-double in the opening-round against the Trail Blazers of 27.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 10.2 assists on 60.0 percent shooting from the floor and 46.4 percent from three-point range.

In most series involving LBJ, he would take centerstage and would be considered the best player and focal point of a playoff series.

While he will play a vital role in the outcome, the spotlight for the Lakers moving on to the next round will be on Davis.

Despite putting up solid numbers in the opener of the First-Round with a double-double of 28 points and 11 rebounds, to go along with two block shots and two steals versus the Trail Blazers on Aug. 18, Davis shot just 8 for 24 from the field, including 0 for 5 from three-point range and 12 for 17 from the charity stripe in the 100-93 loss on TNT that put the Lakers down 1-0.

In the final four games of the series, which the Lakers won to take the series in five games, Davis averaged 30.3 points, 8.8 rebounds, five assists, and 1.5 blocks on 61.5 percent shooting and 53.9 percent from three-point range. Davis finished the series strong with 43 points and nine boards on 14 for 18 from the field, including 4 for 6 from three-point range and 11 for 13 from the foul line in the Lakers series-clinching 131-122 win versus the Trail Blazers on Aug. 29 on TNT.

The Lakers will need for Davis to play to the level he did to close out the Trail Blazers and how he played in two of the three games he played against the Rockets where he averaged 24.5 points, 12.5 rebounds, 2.0 blocks and 1.5 steals on 65.5 percent from the field.

Along with the rebounding category, particularly on the offensive glass as well as points in the paint, the one other main area that will dictate if the Lakers are dominating the Rockets in this series is free throw attempts.

In the opening-round against the Trail Blazers, Davis and James averaged 11.2 and 7.6 free throw attempts respectably.  

In their matchup Rockets during the seeding games of the restart back on Aug. 6, which the Rockets won 113-97 on TNT, the Lakers managed went 25 for 36 (69.4 percent) from the free throw line that night.

If head coach Frank Vogel’s squad can play with that kind of offensive aggression where the majority of their scoring is done in the paint and they can get to the foul line, they should take care of business against the Rockets. Counting this postseason so far, the Lakers are 30-0 this season when they shoot 50 percent from the floor or better.

However, when they get their chances at the foul line, they have to connect at a high rate. The 71.4 and 73.7 percent clip that Davis and James shot respectably in the opening-round will not cut the mustard against the Rockets.

Davis and James getting off offensively, especially if they are taking care of business in the paint and at the foul line will open things up for Kyle Kuzma (10.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg vs. Trail Blazers), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (11.2 ppg), Danny Green, Alex Caruso, JR Smith, and Dion Waiters, especially from the perimeter. 

For the Lakers to achieve their dreams of winning a title, they will need better play from Kuzma, who shot just 36.0 percent from the field and just 30.4 percent from three-point range in the opening-round; Caldwell-Pope, who did hit 40.6 percent of his triple tries, but shot just 38.0 percent from the floor overall versus the Trail Blazers; and Green shot just 35.7 percent overall from the floor and 34.6 percent from three-point range in the First-Round.

The return of veteran guard and fellow NBA champion himself Rajon Rondo, whose been on the shelf because of back spasms and a broken thumb since the league restarted should help the Lakers cause, especially at the defensive end against the Rockets explosive guards.

The Rockets are in the Semis for the fourth straight year for three main reasons. The play of the supporting cast outside their star-studded starting backcourt; their judicious handling of the basketball; and their play at the defensive end.

Headlining the Rockets is 2018 Kia MVP James Harden (29.7 ppg, 8.0 apg, 6.3 rpg, 1.6 spg 465 FG% vs. Thunder) and 2017 Kia MVP Russell Westbrook, and they have earned that moniker for sure with their play throughout their careers.

In their opening-round series against the team they respectably began their careers with in the Thunder, Westbrook was out the first four games of that series because of a right quad injury and when he did come back in Game 5, he looked nothing like his perennial All-Star self with just seven points on 3 for 13 shooting with seven assists and six rebounds in the blowout 114-80 win on Aug 29 on TNT. He played a lot better in the close 104-100 loss in Game 6 two nights later that tied the series at 3-3 with 17 points on 8 for 15 from the field. In the deciding Game 7, Westbrook contributed 20 points and nine rebounds on a respectably 9 for 20 from the floor.

In the case of Harden, who has been notable for bad performances in close out games in recent years for the Rockets had another clunker scoring just 17 points on 4 for 15 from the field, including 1 for 9 from three-point range.

Unlike past elimination games in which he struggled offensively, Harden made up for it by going 8 for 9 from the free throw line, and at the defensive end with nine assists, two steals and three blocks, including one on a three-point attempt on Thunder guard Luguentz Dort in the final minute of Game 7, which the Rockets won 104-102 on Wednesday night on ESPN.   

“It’s cool to, you know, get 40 or 50 points or be shooting the ball extremely well. Obviously, we all want to do that. Just to get recognition, and for it to pay off, you know, when it counts on the defensive end, it shows that I’ve been engaged and locked in,” Harden said in his postgame presser. “For it to show in a clutch moment means a lot.”

The rest of the Rockets picked up the offensive slack for Harden as Eric Gordon (18.1 ppg versus Thunder), who struggled with his shot the first six games of the series had a game-high tying 21 points going 5 for 9 from three-point range. Robert Covington (13.3 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 1.6 bpg, 2.4 spg, 50.0 FG%, 50.0 3-Pt.%) also had 21 points with 10 rebounds, three block shots and three steals, going 6 for 11 from three-point range. Jeff Green (13.4 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 50.7 FG%, 46.5 3-Pt.% vs. Thunder) had 13 points, going 3 for 4 from three-point range.

On a night when the Rockets connected on just 39.8 percent of their shots, they managed to go 17 for 49 from three-point range, force 21 Thunder turnovers (11 steals) and committed just 12 turnovers themselves and register seven block shots on their way to series clinching win that got them to the Semifinals for the fourth straight season.

“If you want to win in a championship of win playoff games, you gotta do it with your heart, and I just thought we demonstrated that the whole game,” Rockets head coach Mike D’Antoni said after the win versus the Thunder. “Guys were tired obviously but played through that.

No team has utilized the three-point shot more than the Rockets, especially under Coach D’Antoni. While they ranked just 11^th in three-point percentage so far this postseason at 35.9 percent, they led the NBA in attempts from long range at 51.0, making on average 18.3 in the opening-round against the Thunder. Those 18.3 makes from three-point range accounted for over 50 percent of the Rockets scoring.

There is no doubt that the Rockets are going to shoot threes at a high rate. If they are not going in at a high clip, that could ignite the Lakers in the open court.

Meaning that along with Gordon, Covington, and Green continuing to strike a match from distance, the Rockets will also need the same from Danuel House, Jr. (12.9 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 37.2 3-Pt. vs. Thunder), P.J. Tucker (8.6 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 37.2 3-Pt.% vs. Thunder), Ben McLemore, and Austin Rivers.

The Rockets also have to really be on point with their defensive switching, which they implore to speed up their opponent’s timing on offense, which they hope resorts to their opponent making quick decisions at the offensive end without exploring all the options and finding the mismatch.

If the Lakers take their time offensively, that will spell doom for the Rockets with their aforementioned disadvantage on the boards because of their lack of size, especially in the front court.

“We’re undersized,” Tucker, who had five points, nine boards, and four steals in Game 7 versus the Thunder said. “OK, so what? The elephant is in the room. It’s always going to be something we’ve got to deal with. We do it on purpose. It’s not like it’s something that somebody just threw on us and we’ve got to deal with it. We choose to be this size. We choose to play the way we play because we feel like we have an advantage. We have multiple advantages by playing that way with out personnel. So, instead of saying how we dealt with being undersized, I think the flip is really how do other people feel about playing against us, how did they feel in their match ups against us? I think that’s more of a question.”

Back in late January, the Houston Rockets led by head coach Mike D’Antoni and General Manager Darryl Morey made the decision through deals at the Feb. 6 trade deadline and through waiver signings before the hiatus to go all in on their small-ball lineup. It got them to the Semifinals for the fourth straight season. While the supporting cast of Eric Gordon, Danuel House, Jr., P.J. Tucker, Robert Covington, Ben McLemore, Jeff Green, and Austin Rivers have played well so far in the 2020 NBA Playoffs, the Los Angeles Lakers are a different opponent entirely, and have their sights set on winning a title. James Harden and Russell Westbrook will bring their A+ game in this series, but LeBron James and Anthony Davis will be the stars that in the end take this series over.

Prediction: Lakers in five games.

(2)   Los Angeles Clippers versus (3) Denver Nuggets

        (49-23)                                        (46-27)

Regular Season Series: Clippers won 2-1.

Playoff Series History: First ever postseason meeting. 

If there is one thing that every good NBA team that plays well in the playoffs has is the ability to be consistent with their play. That is something the No. 2 Seeded Los Angeles Clippers and No. 3 Seeded Denver Nuggets did not show in the opening-round of the 2020 Playoffs. One of these two squads hopes to find that consistency in their Second-Round tilt as both look to inch one step closer to competing for an NBA title.

As from six quarters where they truly looked like a true championship contender, the Clippers had a devil of a time getting past the Dallas Mavericks in six games.

Aside from the performance of reigning Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard, who led the Clippers in their six-game opening-round victory over the No. 7 Seeded Mavericks with 32.8 points, 10.2 rebounds, 5.2 assists, and 2.3 steals on 53.8 percent shooting, the rest of the Clippers were up and down with their performance.

Fellow perennial All-Star Paul George (18.5 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 4.0 apg vs. Mavericks) outside what he did in Game 1, where he scored 27 points on 10 for 22 shooting and Game 5 where he scored 35 points on 12 for 18 from the field, including 4 for 8 from three-point range, really struggled in scoring 14, 11, 9, and 15 points in Games 2,3,4, and 6 on just 16 for 66 shooting (24.2 percent) from the field, including 6 for 32 from three-point range (18.8 percent).

Super subs in Kia Sixth Man of the Year candidates Lou Williams (16.0 ppg, 50.7 FG%) and Montrezl Harrell (9.0 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 61.3 FG%) did not impact the series as their respective award-worthy regular seasons would have suggested.

Marcus Morris, Sr. (12.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 53.7 FG%, 53.8 3-Pt.%) during this series made headlines for how he let his emotions get the better of him a couple of times with hard fouls and physical play on the Mavericks All-NBA selection to be in Luka Doncic. In the series clinching win in Game 6 (114-97) on Sunday on ABC, one of those hard fouls led to his ejection in the first half.

So far in the playoffs, head coach Glenn “Doc” Rivers has had to coach the situation as well as the circumstances in the bubble in Orlando as much as he has the X’s and O’s, along with the great expectations the team has had for the first time in its history.

The good news for the Clippers is they have a clear identity based on defense, commitment to each other and a respect and focus on the task at hand.

The Clippers will need to lean on that identity against a Nuggets team that rode the hot hand of their starting lead guard, provided his health to victory in their opening-round series that went the distance.

The Nuggets rode the hot hand of Jamal Murray (31.6 ppg, 6.3 apg, 5.6 rpg, 55.0 FG%, 53.3 3-Pt.% vs. Jazz) to a dramatic 80-78 win in Game 7 versus the No. 6 Seeded Utah Jazz on Tuesday night on ABC, where he scored 50, 42, 50 points the last three Games 4,5, and 6 to help his team stave off elimination.

That stellar three-game stretch Murray said is a credit to him working out really hard during the hiatus, which resulted in him gaining 12 pounds of muscle, and when he did get back on the floor after rehabbing from an injury he played at a high level that resulted in the spectacular level he played at in the opening-round versus the Jazz.

“The young man is growing up and turning into a superstar on the biggest stage,” head coach Michael Malone said in his postgame presser after his team’s 117-107 win in Game 5 on Aug. 25 on TNT to stave off elimination. “I couldn’t be prouder of him.”  

A knee to his left quad in the opening-half of Game 7 is the only thing that slowed down as he registered just 17 points on 7 for 21 shooting.

While Murray positioned them to be in Game 7, it was the play of All-Star Nikola Jokic (26.3 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 5.4 apg, 51.5 FG% vs. Jazz) with 30 points and 14 rebounds on 12 for 24 shooting that got the Nuggets over the finish line, even though the Jazz had a chance to advance but Mike Conley’s three-pointer at the buzzer missed, and the Nuggets became the 12^th team in NBA playoff history to rally from a 3-1 series deficit to win a best-of-seven series.

For the Clippers, they hopefully learned from their last series that just showing up to play does not guarantee you victory in the postseason. You have to take care of the opponent in front of you and not worry about what lies ahead.

The hopeful return of their emotional leader in guard Patrick Beverly, whose been on the shelf since Game 1 against the Mavericks because of a left calf strain will provide a lift both as mentioned emotionally and defensively as he along with Leonard, and George will have their crack at slowing down Murray, who averaged 13.3 points on just 37.5 percent shooting during the regular season against the Clippers. He might also see Landry Shamet (8.0 ppg, 48.6 FG%, 45.8 3-Pt.%) guarding him also during this series.

It will be up to Ivica Zubac, who averaged 11.2 points and seven rebounds on 65.8 percent shooting against the Mavericks and Harrell to try to slow down Jokic, who averaged 19.3 points, 10.3 rebounds and seven assists against the Clippers during the regular season.

For the Nuggets, it will be vital for them to get any consistent offensive production from Michael Porter, Jr. (12.0 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 41.7 3-Pt.% vs. Jazz), Jerami Grant (11.3 ppg, 41.2 3-Pt.% vs. Jazz), Monte Morris (8.0 ppg vs. Jazz), Paul Millsap, Gary Harris, whose played in just two total games since Mar. 11 due to a right hip injury, Torrey Craig, and Mason Plumlee.

If this becomes just a two-man show of Murray and Jokic, the Nuggets chances of pulling the upset get even slimmer.

The Nuggets dating back to last season have gone the distance in their last three postseason series, winning their latest series in seven games. The Clippers are a way different animal from the Jazz. They have a bonified MVP in Kawhi Leonard, who is as unflappable as they come. That focus on both ends is the main reason why the Clippers came into this season as serious title contenders. The Nuggets are riding high entering this series. But will quickly be brought back down to earth.

Prediction: Clippers in five games.  

Information, statistics, and quotations are courtesy 8/5/2020 scores via www.nba.com; 8/6/2020 3 p.m. “NBA: The Jump” on ESPN with Rachel Nichols, Zach Lowe, and Kendrick Perkins; 8/6/2020 11:30 p.m. “Inside the NBA” presented by Kia on TNT with Ernie Johnson, Kenny Smith, Charles Barkley, and Shaquille O’Neal; 9/1/2020 1:30 a.m. NBATV’s “Gametime,” with Chris Miles, Grant Hill, and Caron Butler; 9/1/2020 www.nba.com story, “Nuggets Join Rare Company With 3-1 Series Comeback;” 9/2/2020 www.nba.com story, “Series Preview: Clippers Haven’t Dominated, and Nuggets Sure To Provide Challenge,” by Sekou Smith; 9/3/2020 www.nba.com story, “Series Preview: Rested Lakers Ready For Small-Ball Challenge,” by Michael C. Wright;  https://www.espn.com/nba/team/stats/_/name/hou/den/lac/lal; and https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Los_Angeles_Lakers_seasons.