J-Speaks: 2018 Western Conference Semifinals Preview

As the field shrank from eight playoff teams in the rugged Western Conference of the National Basketball Association (NBA) to four, we have two very intriguing matchups. We have one that features the defending NBA champions renewing acquaintances with the squad they faced three seasons back in their march to their first of two titles in the last three seasons, while in the other showdown we have the team that set a franchise mark for wins in the regular season, behind a high-octane sharp shooting offense led by the presumptive league MVP versus a top notch defense led by the leading contender for Defensive Player of the Year and Rookie of the Year. Here is J-Speaks 2018 Western Conference Semifinals Preview.

(1)   Houston Rockets versus (5) Utah Jazz 

   

          Regular-Season Series: Rockets won 4-0

Back in the Houston Rockets march to their first NBA title in 1994 one of the teams that they took down in their march to their first of back-to-back Larry O’Brien trophies led by Hall of Famer and league MVP of that season Hakeem Olajuwon was the Utah Jazz led by Hall of Famers in guard John Stockton, and 1997 and 1999 league MVP Karl Malone in five games in the Western Conference Finals. The two teams with different headliners meet again, only one round sooner and for the sixth time in the postseason. 

The No. 1 Seeded Rockets, led by presumptive league MVP for the 2017-18 NBA campaign James Harden took down the No. 8 Seeded Minnesota Timberwolves in the West Quarterfinals 4-1. 

The Rockets opponent in the Semis the No. 5 Seeded Utah Jazz used grit, teamwork, with a little luck to outlast the Oklahoma City Thunder, and their All-Star trio of Russell Westbrook, Paul George, and Carmelo Anthony in six games. 

This Semifinals tilt features the high-octane three-point trigger happy Rockets led by presumptive league MVP James Harden, versus the rock-solid defense of the Jazz, led by the leading candidate for Defensive Player of the Year in starting center Rudy Gobert and Rookie of the Year candidate Donovan Mitchell. 

This matchup also features the two hottest teams in the West, who have gone a combined 69-14 since Jan. 24. However, their four meetings during the regular season were in total favor of the Rockets winning by an average of 17.5 points. The plus 70-point differential during their four meetings ranked as the largest of any regular season series during 2017-18 and represented the largest of all the series between teams in the 2018 postseason. 

Harden in those four games against the Jazz averaged 34.3 points on 55.4 percent from the field, and 43.2 percent from three-point range. 

For the Jazz though, their last loss to the Rockets 96-85 on Feb. 26 came during a stretch that saw them win 21 out of 23 games. While they walked out of Salt Lake City, UT with their 13^th straight win, the Rockets shot just 43.0 percent from the floor on the evening, while connecting on just 9 of their 33 three-point field goals and registering just 15 assists. 

This game was a testament to how much improved the Rockets are on defense as they held the Jazz to just 43.7 percent from the field; held their own on the boards being just out-rebounded 49-48; recorded 15 steals and forced 22 turnovers, scoring 20 points off those miscues and outscored the Jazz 50-44 in the paint. 

The Jazz as mentioned during that time have really played well despite that loss. For a team that was not projected to even be in playoff contention this season because of the loss of All-Star Gordon Hayward in free agency back in the off-season has been a major surprise. 

They were 19-28 following a 104-90 loss versus the Atlanta Hawks on Jan. 22. Included in that 21-2 stretch, the Jazz finished the season going 28-6 in their last 34 games to make the playoffs. 

Two big reasons for their success has been the stellar play of Gobert, who averaged 14.2, a team leading 11.2 rebounds and two block shots in the opening round victory versus the Thunder and Mitchell, who outplayed Westbrook, the reigning league MVP. 

He averaged 28.5 points, 7.2 boards and 1.5 steals in the six games against the Thunder, on 46.2 percent from the field and 36.4 from three-point range. 

He finished the series in spectacular fashion with a game-high 38 points on 14 for 26 shooting, including 5 for 8 from three-point range in the Game 6 clincher on Friday night, with 22 of those points authored in the third quarter as the Jazz took control of the game and did not look back.

How good was Mitchell? Only Hall of Famers Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and the late Wilt Chamberlin scored more points, 216 and 199 respectably in the first six games of their playoff careers than the 171 that Mitchell scored in the six games against the Thunder. 

In looking at what will make the difference in this tilt between the Rockets and the Jazz is how well both teams shoot from distance and which set of role players will rise to the moment. 

Including the playoffs, the Rockets have gone 51-6 this season when they have connected on north of 33 percent of their three-pointers and have gone just 18-12 when they have shot below that percentage. 

For the Jazz, when they have shot above 37 percent from long range or better from distance, they are including the postseason 35-7 and a dismal 17-29 when they have shot less than that mark from three-point range.

While Harden and Paul have been the headliners for the Rockets this season, and deservedly so, when the likes of Capela, Tucker, Ariza, and Gordon have played well, the Rockets have been invincible all season. That four some came through to close out the series versus the T’Wolves and if they can get anything from Ryan Anderson and defensive ace Luc Mbah a Moute, whose been on the shelf since Apr. 10 because of a shoulder injury, that should tip the scale in favor of the boys from “Clutch City.” 

In the case of the Jazz, Mitchell has been the foundation of their offense, the Jazz are not in the Semis without the sharp shooting and playmaking of swingman Joe Ingles, who averaged 14.0 points, connecting on 46.7 percent from three-point range; starting lead guard Ricky Rubio, who averaged 14.0 points 7.3 rebounds, and seven assists; and starting forward Derrick Favors averaged 12.3 points and 7.2 rebounds. 

While their numbers were not as spectacular as those of the starting five of the Jazz, reserve forward Jae Crowder, rookie forward/guard Royce O’Neale and reserve guard Dante Exum made major contributions that made a major difference against the Thunder and will need to do that and then some to have a chance against the Rockets. 

They will have to perform above their maximum to start this series as Rubio will be on the shelf due to an injured hamstring he sustained in Game 6 on Friday night. He did not return.  

No one expected the Jazz to do what they did in the regular season, and no one thought they would take down the Thunder the way they did. The Rockets are a different animal. A team that is prolific on offense and has made itself into a well rounded defensive team. The Jazz will not go quietly, but it is hard to fathom them pulling off another upset, especially against a team that wants to take on the defending NBA champions in the Conference Finals. 

Series Prediction: Rockets in 6 games.

(2)   Golden State Warriors versus (6) New Orleans Pelicans

      Regular-season series: Warriors won 3-1.

Three years ago, the defending NBA champion Golden State Warriors and the New Orleans Pelicans matched up in the opening round of the 2015 NBA playoffs. The Warriors took down the multi-color birds in a 4-0 sweep on their way to win their first of two titles the past three seasons. They meet again in the Semis and while the Pelicans have the look of a different team, they are facing a team on a mission, which has the return of the two-time league MVP from injury on the horizon. 

In one of the shockers of the opening round of the playoffs, the No. 6 Seeded Pelicans swept the No. 3 Seeded 4-0. While MVP candidate Anthony Davis was sensational in the opening round with averages of 33.0 points, 11.8 rebounds, 2.8 blocks and 1.8 steals on 57.6 percent from the floor in the opening round, the starting backcourt of Rajon Rondo and Jrue Holiday were sensational on both sides of the ball against the Trail Blazers’ guards in All-Star Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. 

Going back to last season when he was with the Chicago Bulls in their First-Round and the opening-round versus the Trail Blazers, Rondo has not lost in the last six times he has played in the opening round. He averaged 11.3 points, 13.3 assists and 7.5 boards on 48.7 percent shooting, including 42.9 from three-point range against the Northwest Division champions. 

Holiday was equally as impressive with averages of 27.8 points, 6.5 assists and four boards, on 56.8 percent from the field and 35.0 percent from three-point range. 

In the Game 4 clincher last weekend, Davis, Holiday, and Rondo were exceptional for head coach Alvin Gentry. Davis had a playoff career-high and franchise record of 47 points with 10 boards and three steals, going 15 for 23 from the field, and 15 for 17 from the free throw line. Holiday scored a playoff career-high of 41 points with eight assists, on 15 for 23 shooting, and 9 for 12 from the charity stripe. Rondo had seven points, seven boards and 16 assists as the Pelicans punched their ticket into the Semis for just the time in their 16 seasons in the “Big Easy.” 

The combined 88-point combined performance by Davis and Holiday tied Hall of Famers and Celtics legends John Havlicek and Jo White for the most points by two teammates in a game in postseason history. 

They also became just the third pair to score 40 points or more on 60 percent from the field in the same game, joining Jalen Rose and Reggie Miller in 2000 for the Indiana Pacers, who led them to The Finals 18 seasons back and Hall of Famers Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler for the Houston Rockets in 1995, who capped back-to-back titles that season.  

To put into context how the team defense was against the Trail Blazers guards, Lillard, who averaged 26.9 points during the regular-season, managed just 18.5 in the series versus the Pelicans, on 35.2 percent from the field and 30.0 from three-point range. He managed to score 20 points once in the four games. In fact, he had more total turnovers 16 than three-pointers made with nine. 

The Pelicans face a major challenge in the defending champions, who put their struggles to close the season behind them. 

Despite not having their All-Star floor general and two-time league MVP Stephen Curry, the Warriors, who entered their First-Round tilt versus the No. 7 Seeded San Antonio Spurs, the three remaining All-Stars in Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson took down the Spurs 4-1. 

Durant was remarkable with averages of 28.2 points, 8.6 rebounds and 5.2 assists on 48.0 percent shooting in the series. Green, who had 17 points, 19 rebounds and seven assists in the Game 5 clincher was solid with averages of 11.4 points, 11.2 rebounds and eight assists in the series. Thompson, who started the series with 31 points in the Game 1 victory, hitting 5 for 8 from three-point range had 27 points in the clincher, going 4 for 9 from distance in the Game 5 victory. He averaged 22.6 points for the series on 46.9 from the floor, and 44.1 from three-point range. 

The Warriors playoff mantra during this run of winning two of the last three NBA titles under head coach Steve Kerr has been “Strength in Numbers.” 

In the team’s 10 losses in their last 17 games to close the season, the supporting cast of the Warriors came under constant scrutiny. 

In the opening round though, that cast of Shaun Livingston, Andre Iguodala, JaVale McGee, Quin Cook, David West, and Kevon Looney got back on track against the Spurs and will need to do so as their march towards back-to-back titles continues. 

In the Pelicans 126-120 win at the Warriors on Apr. 7, their only win in four tries against the defending champs during the regular season, Durant, Green and Thompson combined for 70 points in the loss, with 41 coming from Durant. The supporting cast combined for 50, with 31 of those coming from Cook and Looney. 

Davis in that game was great with a team-high 34 points, 12 rebounds, four blocks and two steals. Holiday had 25 points with five boards, six assists and four steals, on 10 for 18 shooting and Rondo had 12 points and 17 assists. 

The difference for the Pelicans in that contest was the 28 points by Nikola Mirotic, going 6 for 11 from three-point range, while swingman E’Twaun Moore had 15 points and seven boards, on a perfect 7 for 7 from the floor. 

As team, the Pelicans shot 56.3 percent from the field on the night; had 39 assists; scored 26 points off 17 Warriors, turnovers, 15 of which were steals; committed just eight turnovers themselves and outscored the home team 62-52 in the paint. 

While the Warriors have gotten a whole lot of headlines these past three seasons because of their offensive prowess, they have won championships because of their ability to lock people down on the defensive end. 

In their five-game victory against the five-time champion Spurs, they managed to score over 100 points twice in the series. They managed 101 in their 14-point setback in Game 2 on Apr. 16 and 103 points in their 13-point victory three days later in Game 4 as they staved off a four-game sweep. 

Playing consistent defense will be at the top of the Warriors to-do list in the Semis against the Pelicans, who averaged 114.0 points, on 48 percent from the floor and 41 percent from three-point range in the regular season against the Warriors. 

The other key for the Warriors is when Curry will reappear? The aforementioned two-time MVP has been on the shelf the last five weeks recovering from a knee injury. 

In the 51 games that Curry was available for the Warriors during the regular season, the team was 41-10. Counting the playoffs, the Warriors are 21-15 without him. 

With the emergence of Davis and Pelicans, who were the only team to sweep their First-Round opponent, this has the makings of a long series. That said, if the Warriors, with Curry play to their potential, the result might be the same as in 2015. 

Series prediction: Warriors in 6 games.

Information, statistics, and quotations are courtesy of 4/28/18 1 a.m. edition of ESPN’s “Sportscenter,” with Neil Everett and Stan Verrett; 4/28/18 7:30 p.m. NBA on TNT’s “NBA Tip-Off,” presented by Autotrader with Ernie Johnson, Kenny Smith, Charles Barkley and Shaquille O’Neal; www.nba.com’s “Series Preview: Houston Rockets Pit Vaunted Offense Against Utah Jazz’s Stingy Defense,” by John Schuhmann; www.nba.com’s “Series Preview: Appropriate Fear, Ultimate Confidence Surround Golden State Warriors,” by Sekou Smith; www.espn.com/nba/team/schedule/statistics/_/name/gs/golden-state-warrriors;  www.espn.com/nba/team/schedule/statistics/_/name/hou/houston-rockets; www.espn.com/nba/schedule/statistics/_/name/no/new-orleans-pelicans; www.espn.com/nba/schedule/statistics/_/name/utah/utah-jazz; and https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Houston_Rockets_seasons.