As
the field shrank from eight playoff teams in the rugged Western Conference of
the National Basketball Association (NBA) to four, we have two very intriguing
matchups. We have one that features the defending NBA champions renewing
acquaintances with the squad they faced three seasons back in their march to
their first of two titles in the last three seasons, while in the other
showdown we have the team that set a franchise mark for wins in the regular
season, behind a high-octane sharp shooting offense led by the presumptive
league MVP versus a top notch defense led by the leading contender for
Defensive Player of the Year and Rookie of the Year. Here is J-Speaks 2018
Western Conference Semifinals Preview.
(1)
Houston
Rockets versus (5) Utah Jazz
Regular-Season Series: Rockets won
4-0
Back
in the Houston Rockets march to their first NBA title in 1994 one of the teams
that they took down in their march to their first of back-to-back Larry O’Brien
trophies led by Hall of Famer and league MVP of that season Hakeem Olajuwon was
the Utah Jazz led by Hall of Famers in guard John Stockton, and 1997 and 1999
league MVP Karl Malone in five games in the Western Conference Finals. The two
teams with different headliners meet again, only one round sooner and for the
sixth time in the postseason.
The
No. 1 Seeded Rockets, led by presumptive league MVP for the 2017-18 NBA
campaign James Harden took down the No. 8 Seeded Minnesota Timberwolves in the
West Quarterfinals 4-1.
The
Rockets opponent in the Semis the No. 5 Seeded Utah Jazz used grit, teamwork,
with a little luck to outlast the Oklahoma City Thunder, and their All-Star
trio of Russell Westbrook, Paul George, and Carmelo Anthony in six games.
This
Semifinals tilt features the high-octane three-point trigger happy Rockets led
by presumptive league MVP James Harden, versus the rock-solid defense of the Jazz,
led by the leading candidate for Defensive Player of the Year in starting
center Rudy Gobert and Rookie of the Year candidate Donovan Mitchell.
This
matchup also features the two hottest teams in the West, who have gone a
combined 69-14 since Jan. 24. However, their four meetings during the regular
season were in total favor of the Rockets winning by an average of 17.5 points.
The plus 70-point differential during their four meetings ranked as the largest
of any regular season series during 2017-18 and represented the largest of all
the series between teams in the 2018 postseason.
Harden
in those four games against the Jazz averaged 34.3 points on 55.4 percent from
the field, and 43.2 percent from three-point range.
For
the Jazz though, their last loss to the Rockets 96-85 on Feb. 26 came during a
stretch that saw them win 21 out of 23 games. While they walked out of Salt
Lake City, UT with their 13th straight win, the Rockets shot just
43.0 percent from the floor on the evening, while connecting on just 9 of their
33 three-point field goals and registering just 15 assists.
This
game was a testament to how much improved the Rockets are on defense as they
held the Jazz to just 43.7 percent from the field; held their own on the boards
being just out-rebounded 49-48; recorded 15 steals and forced 22 turnovers,
scoring 20 points off those miscues and outscored the Jazz 50-44 in the paint.
The
Jazz as mentioned during that time have really played well despite that loss.
For a team that was not projected to even be in playoff contention this season
because of the loss of All-Star Gordon Hayward in free agency back in the
off-season has been a major surprise.
They
were 19-28 following a 104-90 loss versus the Atlanta Hawks on Jan. 22.
Included in that 21-2 stretch, the Jazz finished the season going 28-6 in their
last 34 games to make the playoffs.
Two
big reasons for their success has been the stellar play of Gobert, who averaged
14.2, a team leading 11.2 rebounds and two block shots in the opening round
victory versus the Thunder and Mitchell, who outplayed Westbrook, the reigning
league MVP.
He
averaged 28.5 points, 7.2 boards and 1.5 steals in the six games against the
Thunder, on 46.2 percent from the field and 36.4 from three-point range.
He
finished the series in spectacular fashion with a game-high 38 points on 14 for
26 shooting, including 5 for 8 from three-point range in the Game 6 clincher on
Friday night, with 22 of those points authored in the third quarter as the Jazz
took control of the game and did not look back.
How
good was Mitchell? Only Hall of Famers Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and the late Wilt
Chamberlin scored more points, 216 and 199 respectably in the first six games
of their playoff careers than the 171 that Mitchell scored in the six games
against the Thunder.
In
looking at what will make the difference in this tilt between the Rockets and
the Jazz is how well both teams shoot from distance and which set of role
players will rise to the moment.
Including
the playoffs, the Rockets have gone 51-6 this season when they have connected
on north of 33 percent of their three-pointers and have gone just 18-12 when
they have shot below that percentage.
For
the Jazz, when they have shot above 37 percent from long range or better from
distance, they are including the postseason 35-7 and a dismal 17-29 when they
have shot less than that mark from three-point range.
While
Harden and Paul have been the headliners for the Rockets this season, and
deservedly so, when the likes of Capela, Tucker, Ariza, and Gordon have played
well, the Rockets have been invincible all season. That four some came through
to close out the series versus the T’Wolves and if they can get anything from
Ryan Anderson and defensive ace Luc Mbah a Moute, whose been on the shelf since
Apr. 10 because of a shoulder injury, that should tip the scale in favor of the
boys from “Clutch City.”
In
the case of the Jazz, Mitchell has been the foundation of their offense, the
Jazz are not in the Semis without the sharp shooting and playmaking of swingman
Joe Ingles, who averaged 14.0 points, connecting on 46.7 percent from
three-point range; starting lead guard Ricky Rubio, who averaged 14.0 points
7.3 rebounds, and seven assists; and starting forward Derrick Favors averaged
12.3 points and 7.2 rebounds.
While
their numbers were not as spectacular as those of the starting five of the
Jazz, reserve forward Jae Crowder, rookie forward/guard Royce O’Neale and
reserve guard Dante Exum made major contributions that made a major difference
against the Thunder and will need to do that and then some to have a chance
against the Rockets.
They
will have to perform above their maximum to start this series as Rubio will be
on the shelf due to an injured hamstring he sustained in Game 6 on Friday
night. He did not return.
No
one expected the Jazz to do what they did in the regular season, and no one
thought they would take down the Thunder the way they did. The Rockets are a
different animal. A team that is prolific on offense and has made itself into a
well rounded defensive team. The Jazz will not go quietly, but it is hard to
fathom them pulling off another upset, especially against a team that wants to
take on the defending NBA champions in the Conference Finals.
Series
Prediction:
Rockets in 6 games.
(2)
Golden
State Warriors versus (6) New Orleans Pelicans
Regular-season
series:
Warriors won 3-1.
Three
years ago, the defending NBA champion Golden State Warriors and the New Orleans
Pelicans matched up in the opening round of the 2015 NBA playoffs. The Warriors
took down the multi-color birds in a 4-0 sweep on their way to win their first
of two titles the past three seasons. They meet again in the Semis and while
the Pelicans have the look of a different team, they are facing a team on a
mission, which has the return of the two-time league MVP from injury on the horizon.
In
one of the shockers of the opening round of the playoffs, the No. 6 Seeded
Pelicans swept the No. 3 Seeded 4-0. While MVP candidate Anthony Davis was
sensational in the opening round with averages of 33.0 points, 11.8 rebounds,
2.8 blocks and 1.8 steals on 57.6 percent from the floor in the opening round,
the starting backcourt of Rajon Rondo and Jrue Holiday were sensational on both
sides of the ball against the Trail Blazers’ guards in All-Star Damian Lillard
and CJ McCollum.
Going
back to last season when he was with the Chicago Bulls in their First-Round and
the opening-round versus the Trail Blazers, Rondo has not lost in the last six
times he has played in the opening round. He averaged 11.3 points, 13.3 assists
and 7.5 boards on 48.7 percent shooting, including 42.9 from three-point range
against the Northwest Division champions.
Holiday
was equally as impressive with averages of 27.8 points, 6.5 assists and four boards,
on 56.8 percent from the field and 35.0 percent from three-point range.
In
the Game 4 clincher last weekend, Davis, Holiday, and Rondo were exceptional
for head coach Alvin Gentry. Davis had a playoff career-high and franchise
record of 47 points with 10 boards and three steals, going 15 for 23 from the field,
and 15 for 17 from the free throw line. Holiday scored a playoff career-high of
41 points with eight assists, on 15 for 23 shooting, and 9 for 12 from the
charity stripe. Rondo had seven points, seven boards and 16 assists as the
Pelicans punched their ticket into the Semis for just the time in their 16
seasons in the “Big Easy.”
The
combined 88-point combined performance by Davis and Holiday tied Hall of Famers
and Celtics legends John Havlicek and Jo White for the most points by two
teammates in a game in postseason history.
They
also became just the third pair to score 40 points or more on 60 percent from
the field in the same game, joining Jalen Rose and Reggie Miller in 2000 for
the Indiana Pacers, who led them to The Finals 18 seasons back and Hall of Famers
Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler for the Houston Rockets in 1995, who capped
back-to-back titles that season.
To
put into context how the team defense was against the Trail Blazers guards,
Lillard, who averaged 26.9 points during the regular-season, managed just 18.5
in the series versus the Pelicans, on 35.2 percent from the field and 30.0 from
three-point range. He managed to score 20 points once in the four games. In
fact, he had more total turnovers 16 than three-pointers made with nine.
The
Pelicans face a major challenge in the defending champions, who put their struggles
to close the season behind them.
Despite
not having their All-Star floor general and two-time league MVP Stephen Curry,
the Warriors, who entered their First-Round tilt versus the No. 7 Seeded San
Antonio Spurs, the three remaining All-Stars in Kevin Durant, Draymond Green
and Klay Thompson took down the Spurs 4-1.
Durant
was remarkable with averages of 28.2 points, 8.6 rebounds and 5.2 assists on
48.0 percent shooting in the series. Green, who had 17 points, 19 rebounds and
seven assists in the Game 5 clincher was solid with averages of 11.4 points,
11.2 rebounds and eight assists in the series. Thompson, who started the series
with 31 points in the Game 1 victory, hitting 5 for 8 from three-point range
had 27 points in the clincher, going 4 for 9 from distance in the Game 5
victory. He averaged 22.6 points for the series on 46.9 from the floor, and
44.1 from three-point range.
The
Warriors playoff mantra during this run of winning two of the last three NBA
titles under head coach Steve Kerr has been “Strength in Numbers.”
In
the team’s 10 losses in their last 17 games to close the season, the supporting
cast of the Warriors came under constant scrutiny.
In
the opening round though, that cast of Shaun Livingston, Andre Iguodala, JaVale
McGee, Quin Cook, David West, and Kevon Looney got back on track against the
Spurs and will need to do so as their march towards back-to-back titles
continues.
In
the Pelicans 126-120 win at the Warriors on Apr. 7, their only win in four tries
against the defending champs during the regular season, Durant, Green and
Thompson combined for 70 points in the loss, with 41 coming from Durant. The supporting
cast combined for 50, with 31 of those coming from Cook and Looney.
Davis
in that game was great with a team-high 34 points, 12 rebounds, four blocks and
two steals. Holiday had 25 points with five boards, six assists and four steals,
on 10 for 18 shooting and Rondo had 12 points and 17 assists.
The
difference for the Pelicans in that contest was the 28 points by Nikola
Mirotic, going 6 for 11 from three-point range, while swingman E’Twaun Moore
had 15 points and seven boards, on a perfect 7 for 7 from the floor.
As
team, the Pelicans shot 56.3 percent from the field on the night; had 39
assists; scored 26 points off 17 Warriors, turnovers, 15 of which were steals;
committed just eight turnovers themselves and outscored the home team 62-52 in
the paint.
While
the Warriors have gotten a whole lot of headlines these past three seasons
because of their offensive prowess, they have won championships because of
their ability to lock people down on the defensive end.
In
their five-game victory against the five-time champion Spurs, they managed to
score over 100 points twice in the series. They managed 101 in their 14-point
setback in Game 2 on Apr. 16 and 103 points in their 13-point victory three
days later in Game 4 as they staved off a four-game sweep.
Playing
consistent defense will be at the top of the Warriors to-do list in the Semis
against the Pelicans, who averaged 114.0 points, on 48 percent from the floor
and 41 percent from three-point range in the regular season against the Warriors.
The
other key for the Warriors is when Curry will reappear? The aforementioned
two-time MVP has been on the shelf the last five weeks recovering from a knee
injury.
In
the 51 games that Curry was available for the Warriors during the regular
season, the team was 41-10. Counting the playoffs, the Warriors are 21-15 without
him.
With
the emergence of Davis and Pelicans, who were the only team to sweep their First-Round
opponent, this has the makings of a long series. That said, if the Warriors,
with Curry play to their potential, the result might be the same as in 2015.
Series
prediction:
Warriors in 6 games.
Information,
statistics, and quotations are courtesy of 4/28/18 1 a.m. edition of ESPN’s “Sportscenter,”
with Neil Everett and Stan Verrett; 4/28/18 7:30 p.m. NBA on TNT’s “NBA
Tip-Off,” presented by Autotrader with Ernie Johnson, Kenny Smith, Charles
Barkley and Shaquille O’Neal; www.nba.com’s “Series
Preview: Houston Rockets Pit Vaunted Offense Against Utah Jazz’s Stingy
Defense,” by John Schuhmann; www.nba.com’s “Series
Preview: Appropriate Fear, Ultimate Confidence Surround Golden State Warriors,”
by Sekou Smith; www.espn.com/nba/team/schedule/statistics/_/name/gs/golden-state-warrriors;
www.espn.com/nba/team/schedule/statistics/_/name/hou/houston-rockets;
www.espn.com/nba/schedule/statistics/_/name/no/new-orleans-pelicans;
www.espn.com/nba/schedule/statistics/_/name/utah/utah-jazz;
and https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Houston_Rockets_seasons.