J-Speaks: 2023 Eastern Conference Finals Preview

 

Three years ago, the boys from “Beantown” squared off against the boys from “South Beach for the right to represent the Eastern Conference in “The Finals.” They squared off again in the 2022 to represent the East in the 2022 NBA Finals. While there has been a major change for the boys from “Beantown” they still finished as No. 2 Seed in the East and fought through some adversity to be on the precipice of competing for title No. 18. Their opponent has used every bit of toughness, togetherness, and purpose to be in position to compete for their fourth title in franchise history. Here is the J-Speaks 2023 Eastern Conference Preview.

(2) Boston Celtics versus (8) Miami Heat
            (57-25)                             (44-38)

Season-Series: tied 2-2.

Playoff History
2010 East First Round BOS def MIA 4-1
2011 East Semifinals    MIA def BOS 4-1
2012 East Finals           MIA def BOS 4-3
2020 East Finals           MIA def BOS 4-2
2022 East Finals           BOS def MIA 4-3

For the third time in the past four seasons the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat will square off for the right to represent the East in The Finals. Prior to this number of tilts in this recent history, these two squared off for three straight postseason at the beginning to start the 2010s.

When the Celtics took down the Heat in five games in opening-round in 2010, future Hall of Famer Dwyane Wade in his presser as the Heat’s season concluded said that was the “last time” he was having an early summer vacation. The Heat that summer went big game hunting to bring in some help from to go alongside Wade, welcoming now Los Angeles perennial All-Star LeBron James and fellow perennial All-Star Chris Bosh into the fold.

After a rocky start their first season together, Wade, James and Bosh, and head coach Erik Spoelstra put it all together winning the East, including taking down the Celtics and their Hall of Fame trio of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen in five games in the 2010 East Semis but they fell in six games to future Hall of Famer Dirk Nowitzki and the Dallas Mavericks 4-2 in 2011 Finals.

The Heat answered that failure winning back-to-back titles over the next two seasons, taking down the Celtics first in the 2011 East Semis 4-1 and then in a hard fought seven games in the 2012 Eastern Conference.

When the two teams squared off in the 2020 East Finals in the restart in Orlando, FL because of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Global Pandemic, it was the Celtics who had the star power with All-Stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. However, that series was won by the grit of the Heat led by their All-Star duo of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo in six games. The Heat would fall in 2020 Finals to the James, Anthony Davis, and the Los Angeles Lakers 4-2.

That same grit was on full display by both teams in last season’s East Finals as the Heat overcame a 3-2 series deficit winning Game 6 at the Celtics to force a winner-take-all Game 7. This time around it was the Celtics that would prevail in seven games thanks to Butler missing a jumper in the closing seconds of Game 7 that would have put the Heat ahead.

When the Celtics matched up with the Heat from in those three straight tilts to start the 2010s, they were led on their sidelines by current 76ers head coach Doc Rivers. In the 2020 East Finals tilt with the Heat, the Celtics were under the direction from the sidelines of Brad Stevens. Last season, the Celtics in 2022 East Finals were led the recently named head coach Ime Udoka.

The Celtics sideline leader this season is former assistant coach Joe Mazzulla, who got the job just before the start of 2021-22 season after the organization suspended Coach Udoka for an inappropriate relationship with a female staffer.

Just like that, Mazzulla was handed the keys to a championship squad led by the aforementioned Tatum and Brown, Marcus Smart, who was the then reigning Kia Defensive Player of the year, Al Horford, Derrick White, Robert Williams III, Grant Williams, and Malcolm Brogdon.

Behind a solid defense and high-octane offense that at its best lit people up from three-point range, the Celtics were a top the Eastern Conference for most of 2022-23 campaign and finished with the second-best mark in the East, capturing the Atlantic Division for a second straight season and for the third time in the last seven seasons.

The Celtics arrival to 2023 East Finals was not a smooth one needing six games to get past No. 7 Seeded Atlanta Hawks as they dropped Game 5 at home to the Hawks and needed to a victory in Game 6 to dispatch them.

In the East Semis, the Celtics lock horns again with their longtime Atlantic Division rival Celtics. Just like in 2022 East Semis against the then reigning NBA champion Milwaukee Bucks, the Celtics dropped Game 5 at home to the 76ers. The Celtics bounced back in Game 6 (95-86) thanks to Tatum, who after scoring just three points on 1/13 field goals, including 0/6 from three the first three quarters, scored 16 points going 4/5 from three in the fourth quarter in, outscoring the Celtics in the final period by himself 16-13.

Tatum carried his fourth quarter heroics in Game 6 with a Game 7 NBA-record with 51 points with 13 rebounds and five assists on 17/28 from the field, including 6/10 on his triples and 11/14 at the foul line. Brown added 25 points with six rebounds on 9/19 shooting, including 3/6 from three.

Entering this East Finals tilt against the Heat, the Celtics are not taking making any assumptions from a season ago will apply this time around.

“Nothing about last year matters,” Brown said in his postgame presser following his team’s 112-88 win in Game 7 versus 76ers in East Semis. “I don’t think Miami is thinking about last year. I think they’re coming out and ready to play basketball. If anything, atone for last year. So, we’ve just got to come out with a great fresh mind and execute.”

The 2022-23 season for the Heat lived up to their mantra of “Heat Culture.” They had injuries to key personnel. They were one of the most inefficient offensive teams in “The Association” during the regular season, averaging only 109.5 points and 23.8 assists per game on 46 percent from the field and 34 percent from three. There were also times where the boys from “South Beach” did not look connected defensively, which has been their calling card for nearly three decades since the arrival of now lead executive in Hall of Famer Pat Riley.

Yet head coach Erik Spoelstra’s squad not once made any excuses just competed their tails off and found a way to earn a spot in the East Play-In Tournament at the end of the regular season.

The Heat’s first chance to clinch a spot in the postseason did not go well as they fell at home 116-105 in their Play-In tilt versus the Atlanta Hawks on Apr. 11 on TNT as the visitors clinched the No. 7 Seed in East.

The Heat were seriously on the ropes of missing the Playoffs three nights later versus the Chicago Bulls, but a 15-1 run to close the game put them on the right side of the scoreboard with a 102-91 victory versus the Bulls on TNT, clinching the No. 8 and final Playoff spot in the East.

That earned the Heat a First-Round date with the No. 1 Seeded Bucks, and when the Bucks lost their all-world player Giannis Antetokounmpo to a back injury, the Heat took full advantage and won Game 2 at the Bucks 130-117 on Apr. 16 on TNT to take a 1-0 series lead.

After dropping Game 2 at the Bucks 138-122, the Heat back home blew out the Bucks 121-99 on Apr. 22 on ESPN to take a 2-1 series lead.

The Heat followed that up with two epic comeback wins overcoming a 14-point deficit in the fourth quarter to win Game 4 119-114 on Apr. 24 on TNT and then turning out the lights on the Bucks season overcoming a 16-point deficit after three quarters to win 128-126 in overtime at the Bucks Apr. 26 on NBATV to take the series 4-1.

The Heat opened the East Semis by stealing home court advantage with a 108-101 win at the No. 5 Seeded New York Knicks Apr. 30 on ABC to take a 1-0 series lead.

After the Knicks squared things 1-1 with a 111-105 home win two nights later, the Heat manhandled the boys from the “Big Apple” with a 105-86 win in Game 3 on May 6 and followed that up with a 109-101 home victory to go up in the series 3-1.

The Heat after a hard-fought defeat (112-103) in Game 5 at the Knicks May 10 on TNT, finished off the Knicks in a hard fought 96-92 win, becoming the second No. 8 Seed under the current 16-team postseason format since 1984 to reach the Conference Finals, joining the 1999 Knicks.

“It is really freaking hard to get to the Eastern Conference Finals,” Coach Spoelstra said postgame after the Heat’s series clinching win in Game 6 last Friday night. “We’ve had our normal, big, audacious goals for this season, but when you get to one step like this, there’s great gratitude because there’s a lot of teams that would love to be in this position.”

The winner of the sixth postseason tilt will come down to three basic things.

One which squad’s headliner(s) will put their fingerprints at a consistent level in this series.

Over the past few seasons, the success of the Celtics in the Playoffs has hinged on how well Tatum and Brown perform.

For the most part, the Celtics dynamic All-Star duo has risen to the moment, especially last season where they reached The Finals and that has been the case this postseason so far.

Tatum so far this postseason has averaged 28.2 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 5.2 assists on 45. 3 percent from the field, and 35.9 percent from three. While there have been moments where the All-Star has gotten off to slow starts, he has found a way to make an impact on the game besides scoring. He has brought defensively, especially on the glass, registering nine double-doubles so far this postseason, including in four of the final five games of the East Semis against the 76ers. He has also shown his continued improvement as a facilitator, which allows him to be even more dangerous as a scorer.

When Tatum scored 51 points as mentioned in the Game 7 clincher versus the 76ers on Sunday, he surpassed the 50-point performance two-time Kia MVP and four-time NBA champion Stephen Curry of the Golden State Warriors had in the Game 7 clincher of their opening-round series against the Kings for the most points in a Game 7 in NBA Playoff history.

“It’s easier said than done,” Coach Spoelstra said in advance of Wednesday’s shootaround in advance of Game 1 on defending Tatum and Brown. “You have to do your work early. Weakside defenders have to be in their spots early…they’re a very good driving team because of those two guys collapse your defense and then having spacing, and they’re very discipline with their spacing, with a bunch of 40 percent three-point shooters. You got to scramble and make multiple efforts—there’s no easy, but there is a way. You have to commit to those kinds of efforts.”

The Heat have their own top gun at the offensive end in Jimmy Butler, who once again has raised his play and intensity to an optimum level in the postseason with averages of 31.1 points, 6.6 boards, 5.4 assists and 1.7 steals on an incredible 52.7 percent from the field so far in the 2023 Playoffs.

Butler got his postseason rolling with 35 points, 11 assists, five rebounds and three steals on 15/27 from the floor in previously mentioned Game 1 win by the Heat at the Bucks.

He then closed things in the opening-round first with a career-high 56 points with nine rebounds on a sparkling 19/28 from the field, including three made triples and going 15/18 at the foul line. That was followed by a 42-point performance with eight boards on 17/33 from the field in the Game 5 clincher at the Bucks.

The Heat were led by Butler’s 25 points and 11 rebounds in their just mentioned Game 1 win to start the East Semis at the Knicks. But the Heat’s perennial All-Star injured his ankle and while he has still averaged 24.5 points, he has connected on just 41.7 percent of his field goal attempts and is just 1/8 on his three-point attempts.

Both Tatum and Butler just like in the past two postseasons tilts will see their fair share defenders on them from the opposing team, the other factor that will loom large in this series is the ancillary players around these two stars.

The Celtics will have the advantage to start with Brown, who has averaged 24.6 points, and 5.3 boards on 54.1 percent from the field and 47.1 percent on his threes so far this postseason.

Smart has been solid as well with averages of 15.8 points and 5.1 assists on 46.5 percent from the floor, and 36.3 percent on his threes. Brogdon, the 2022-23 Kia Sixth Man of the Year has carried his solid play from the regular season into the Playoffs averaging 14.8 points on 44.6 percent from the floor and 43.5 percent on his threes. White has ben solid as well with averages of 12.8 points making 50 percent of his shots overall and 42.9 percent of his triples.

While by the numbers they have not stood out, but big men in veteran Al Horford (6.6 ppg, 7.6 rpg) and Robert Williams III (6.7 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 79.2 FG%) have been the glue on both ends that has played a major role in the Celtics getting to this point of being just four wins away from getting back to The Finals.

The Heat while the found a way to get past the Bucks in the opening-round, they lost sharp-shooter in 2021-22 Kia Sixth Man of the Year in Tyler Herro to a fractured hand in Game 1 of the series and then lost reserve guard in All-Star Victory Oladipo to a knee injury in Game 3.

While losing two key offensive threats like that would be a major blow for a team, for the Heat it provided opportunity for guys to step up and is what the likes of perennial All-Star Kyle Lowry (10.1 ppg, 4.5 apg, 35.7 3-Pt.%) Gabe Vincent (11.5 ppg, 4.8 apg), Max Strus (10.8 ppg, 47.3 FG%, 36.9 3-Pt.%), Caleb Martin (10.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 52.6 FG%, 38.6 3-Pt.%) have done.

“[Coach] Spo always say we can win games in any type and tonight was in the mud,” Lowry, who had 11 points and nine assists off the bench in the Game 6 versus Knicks said about the team’s ability to win games either high scoring or in the mid-90s. “Just got to have faith in what you do and believe in what you believe in. One thing about us is we’re going out there every single night and we’re going to play hard for each other.”

With the absence of Herro and his ability to strike a match from three-point range, that also opened the door for Duncan Robinson to get back into the rotation and he has taken full advantage raising his three-point percentage from 32.8 percent during the regular season to 42.6 percent (26/61) so far in the 2023 NBA Playoffs.

To put into context the resurrection of Robinson, he has played 194 total minutes so far this postseason after totaling 190 minutes the final three months of the regular season and was out coach’s decision during the Play-In Tournament.

The main guy that has stepped up to be Robin to Butler’s Batman has been Bam Adebayo, whose averaged 18.1 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 3.5 assists on 49.7 percent shooting so far this postseason.

While Butler’s stellar 42-point performance in the Game 5 clincher at the Bucks was the main headline, Adebayo also made an impact with a triple-double of 20 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists. In the Game 4 victory of the East Semis versus the Knicks, Adebayo had 23 points and 12 rebounds on 10/17 shooting. He also registered 23 points with nine boards in the Game 6 clincher versus the Knicks last Friday night.

“You know people always say we’re too little. We need this. We need that. When you want to win that bad, I feel like you’ll do anything. You’ll put your body through a lot for just four wins,” Adebayo said after the Game 6 win on Friday on his team’s determination to win this time of the season.  

The Heat also have a front court combination in veterans Kevin Love and Cody Zeller, who were signed in season and like Horford and Williams III for the Celtics have provided front court depth that was seriously lacking earlier in the regular season.

Being able to push all the right buttons and putting together plans that will put these opposing squads in position to represent the East in 2023 NBA Finals will be Coach Mazzulla for the Celtics and Coach Spoelstra for the Heat.

Mazzulla, 34 the youngest head coach in the NBA this season as mentioned earlier came into this season with a lot of pressure considering the team that he coaches and the mystique that comes with being the sideline leader of the 17-time NBA champs.

The former assistant has shown to be a quick study, especially in the Semis against the 76ers when he made the adjustment in starting Williams III next to Horford instead of staggering their usage on the floor separately. That combination, which was a big reason the team reached The Finals a season ago, played a big role in slowing down the 76ers offense the final two games of the series.

In the East Finals against the Heat, Coach Mazzulla very likely will go back to the lineup he likes to use with Tatum, Brown, Horford, Smart, and White.

His counterpart in Coach Spoelstra is one of the game’s best when it comes to in-series and in-game adjustments. That has never been more prevalent than in this postseason where Spoelstra and his coaching staff have pulled every rabbit out of the hat to get the Heat into a position that very few outside their organization thought they would be this spring.

At the start of this postseason, the Boston Celtics were expected to reach this point. The Miami Heat did not have high expectations to be within four wins of The Finals expect for those from “South Beach.”

On paper, the Celtics enter this matchup as the deeper, talented, and balanced team, led by their superstar duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. They also enter as a team that is battle tested over the last two postseason where they had to go seven games their last two Semifinals appearances and they survived both times.

The Heat though enter as the gritter team that is led by their driven superstar in Jimmy Butler, who is determined as ever to get the Heat to The Finals for the second time the past four postseasons.

“If you’re going to double anyone on our team, the ball’s going to move,” Butler, who averaged 24.6 points, 7.2 rebounds and six assists in the East Semis versus the Knicks said on his squad’s capabilities offensively when anyone draws a second defender. “We’ve got guys that can shoot the ball incredibly well. Attack and finish at the rim incredibly well…And if that’s the game plan on whoever, we’re going to swing that ball around again.”

While the headliners in terms of the players on both sides have changed as well as the sideline leader of the Celtics from Doc Rivers, to Brad Stevens now to Joe Mazzulla, what will determine this sixth postseason installment between the boys from “Beantown” versus the boys from “South Beach” will not change. It has come down to who can do the little things that has won and that seems like that will make the difference this time around as well.

“It’s ‘Who’s going to out-tough? Who’s going to play harder than the other team,” Brogdon told NBATV after the Celtics series clinching win versus 76ers on Sunday. “It’s going to come down to rebounding. It’s going to come down to getting stops on the defensive end.”

Information, statistics, and quotations are courtesy of 5/13/2023 7 a.m. NBATV’s “Gametime” With Matt Winer, Dennis Scott, and Brendan Haywood; 5/15/2023 www.nba.com story, “Series Preview: Celtics, Heat Clash Again For Eastern Conference Title,” By Steve Aschburner; 5/17/2023 www.espn.com story, “Erik Spoelstra: ‘No Easy Way’ To Stop Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown,” By Nick Friedell;  https://www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/6430/jimmy-butler; https://www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/4066261/bam-adebayo; https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/4065648/jayson-tatum;  https://www.espn.com/nba/team/stats/_/name/mia/miami-heat; https://www.espn.com/nba/team/stats/_/name/bos/boston-celtics; and www.landofbasketball.com.