J-Speaks: 2022 Western Conference Finals Preview

 

Nearly two decades ago, the boys from the “Bay Area” took down the No. 1 Seeded boys from “Big D” in the opening-round of the 2007 NBA Playoffs after a franchise record 67-win season, bringing a sudden end to their hopes of returning to The Finals after falling the season before in six games to the boys from “South Beach.” The boys from Texas, with championship to their credit now want to get another step closer to winning their second in franchise history. Standing in their way are the boys from the “Bay Area” who are looking to get one step closer themselves to adding Larry O’Brien trophy to their franchise trophy case.

(1)   Golden State Warriors versus (4) Dallas Mavericks

(53-29)                                    (52-30)

               Season Series: Mavericks won 3-1

               Playoff History: GS deft DAL 4-2 2007 West First Round

The Golden State Warriors finished with 50-plus wins for the ninth time in franchise history and earned the No. 3 Seed in the stacked Western Conference despite that their All-Star and future Hall of Fame trio of two-time Kia MVP Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green played a combined total of 11 minutes (equivalent of three games) in the regular season amidst overlapping injuries.

Thompson missed the first 38 games of the regular season, returning on Jan. 9 versus the Cleveland Cavaliers after a 941-day absence because of a torn ACL left knee sustained in Game 6 2019 Finals versus the eventual NBA champion Toronto Raptors and a ruptured right Achilles in Nov. 2020.

Green missed a stretch of 29 out of 30 games, which included 28 straight games out because of a disc issue in his lower back.

Curry missed the final 12 games of the regular season with a sprained ligament in his left foot sustained Mar. 16 in a 110-88 loss versus the Boston Celtics on ESPN. Warriors went 6-6 to close the regular season without Curry.

With their three headliners missing a great number of games during the regular season, which allowed for opportunity to see what head coach Steve Kerr had on the roster. What he found out is he had a solid supporting cast in the likes of Andrew Wiggins, who earned his first All-Star selection, Jordan Poole, Otto Porter, Jr., rookie Jonathan Kuminga, Gary Payton II, Nemaja Bjelica, Kevon Looney, Damion Lee, and Juan Toscano-Anderson.

The solid play of the supporting cast, particularly of Poole, Wiggins, Payton II, and Looney, alongside Curry and Green at the start of the regular season is how head coach Steve Kerr’s team got off to a 29-7 start to be in position at the end of the season to have a Top 3 record in the West.

The Warriors got healthy at the right time and took down the No. 6 Seeded Denver Nuggets in five games in the First Round, winning the first three games of the series.

Just like they did in their run towards the first of three titles in a four-year span in the middle of the 2010s took down the young, hungry, and physical No. 2 Seeded Memphis Grizzlies in six games first splitting the first two games at the Grizzlies, winning Game 1 117-116 and falling in Game 2 106-101. They won Game 3 in convincing fashion 142-112 and overcame a 12-point fourth quarter deficit to take Game 4 101-98. After an embarrassing 134-95 loss at the Grizzlies in Game 5 to see their series lead cut to 3-2, the Warriors used a 23-7 run the final 6:30 of the fourth quarter, which included a 10-0 run to win Game 6 110-96 to win the series 4-2.

The Warriors trio has been solid so far through the first two rounds of the playoffs but has had spotty play at times, especially against the Grizzlies.

Curry, who is averaging 26.9 points and 5.6 assists on 45.1 percent from the field and 35.9 percent from three-point range so far in the 2022 NBA Playoffs registered averages of 26 points and 5.8 assists in the West Semis against the Grizzlies, but only shot 23/70 (32.6 percent) from three-point range in the series after averaging 28.0 points on 50.2 percent from the floor and totaled 19/47 on his threes against the Nuggets. 

Curry though is the first guard to average 25 points in his first two series in a postseason at age 34 or older since Hall of Famer and six-time NBA champion Michael Jordan in his final championship run of 1997-98 with Chicago Bulls. 

The 28.7 scoring average since the 2020-21 season by the First Team All-NBA guard, who was joined by the Mavericks' star Luka Doncic is first amongst point guards. 

The perennial All-Star floor general though saved his best for last in both series as he scored  11 of his 30 points in the fourth quarter of the Game 5 clinching victory versus the Nuggets as the Warriors overcame an eight-point deficit (78-70) after three quarters. He had 15 of his 29 points in the fourth quarter of Game 6 to put away the Grizzlies.

Thompson has averaged so far this postseason 20.4 points on 45 percent from the floor and 40.8 percent from three-point range. However, he only managed an 18.5 scoring average and totaled just 20/55 (36.8 percent) from three-point range in the West Semis against the Grizzlies.

Like Curry, Thompson saved his best for the conclusion of the series leading the Warriors with 30 points and eight boards with three block shots on 11/22 shooting, including 8/14 from three-point range in the Game 6 victory over the Grizzlies.

Green, who has been the heart-and-soul of the Warriors, particularly defensively during this decade that has seen them reach the West Finals now for the 6^th time in the last eight seasons has had his work cut out for him defensively the first two rounds of the 2022 Playoffs.

He has had to tangle with the now back-to-back MVP in Nikola Jokic and then with Grizzlies frontcourt of Steven Adams, Jaren Jackson, Jr., and Brandon Clarke.

Along with that, Green has had to be the main facilitator offensively for the Warriors and because of that has seen his scored just 7.8 points with 7.2 rebounds and 6.6 assists so far this postseason.

Green though had his best statistical performance of this postseason in Game 6 versus the Grizzlies registering his second double-double of this postseason with 14 points and 15 rebounds with eight assists.  

In the Warriors run of winning three titles in a five-year span, they were a very deep roster with the likes of Andrew Bogut, David West, Shaun Livingston, Harrison Barnes, and Andre Iguodala, which led to their playoff mantra during that time “Strength In Numbers.”

The supporting cast for this postseason run for the Warriors has been led by scoring wise by Jordan Poole, who has averaged 19.3 points and 4.8 assists on 50 percent from the field and 39.1 percent from three-point range so far this postseason. Wiggins, who is in the Playoffs for just the second time in his career as registered 14.5 points and 6.9 boards on 49.2 percent from the floor and 40 percent on his threes.

It was a “Poole party” the first three games of the opening round against the Nuggets where the third-year guard out of the University of Michigan registered 30, 29, and 27 points the first three games, totaling 13/22 from three-point range. He only though registered 11 and eight points in Games 4 and 5 respectively to close the series on 6/20 combined from the field, including 2/9 on his triples.

Poole rediscovered his grove in the West Semis with outputs of 31, 20, and 27 points respectably in Games 1-3 against the Grizzlies on a combined 31/53 shooting, including 9/21 from three-point range. Poole’s production though hit the skids to close the series has he scored just 14, three, and 12 points respectively in Game 4-6, going a combined 9/33 shooting, including 3/17 on his triple tries.

The one Warriors player that has been steady the first two rounds for them this postseason has been Wiggins, who has scored in double-figures in all but one of their first 11 games. Both of his double-doubles came in two of the final three games the previous round against the Grizzlies with 17 points and 10 rebounds in Game 5 and 18 points, 11 rebounds with three block shots on 3/5 from three-point range in Game 6. Looney was also big in Game 6 with 22 rebounds, with 11 of those on the offensive end.    

The Dallas Mavericks, who finished one game behind the Warriors in the West standings held onto with hopeful optimism that the exceptionally talented Luka Doncic, the arrival of new head coach Jason Kidd, who was the starting lead guard on the Mavericks lone title team in 2011 when they took down the Miami Heat in six games after losing to them in 2006 Finals also in six games, the midseason acquisition of guard Spencer Dinwiddie from the Washington Wizards would be enough to get them past the First Round.

It was more than enough as they took down the Utah Jazz in the opening-round in six games and then stunned the No. 1 Seeded, 64-win Phoenix Suns in the Western Conference Semifinals in seven games.

The Mavericks prospects at the start of this postseason were not looking promising because Doncic began the 2022 Playoffs on the shelf because of left calf strain sustained in the 130-120 loss in the regular season finale versus the San Antonio Spurs on Apr. 10.

After dropping Game 1 99-93 versus the Jazz, the Mavericks bounced back with victories of 110-104 in Game 2 and 126-118 at the Jazz to take a 2-1 series lead.

Doncic returned from his three-game absence with the strained left calf to score 30 points with 10 rebounds on 11/21 shooting with 4 made three-pointers in Game 4, but the Mavericks lost 100-99 giving up the final six points of the game the last 1:27 of regulation as the series was tied 2-2.

The Mavericks got right on their home court demolishing the Jazz 102-77 to take a 3-2 series lead led by the 33 points, 13 rebounds and five assists for Doncic on 11/22 shooting.

The Mavericks closed out the Jazz winning 98-96 as they outscored them 57-43 in second half, to advanced past the First Round for the first time in 11 seasons.

It seemed like the Mavericks postseason run was going to come to a conclusion as they lost the first two games of the West Semifinals at the Suns, 121-114 in Game 1 and 129-109 in Game 2 to see their losing streak against the Suns dating back to the 2019-20 season grow to 11 straight games, includes seven straight defeats at the Suns.

The Mavericks got right at home taking Game 3 103-94 and 111-101 in Game 4 to tie the series 2-2.

Prospects of taking their first lead in the series went by the wayside for the Mavericks dropping Game 5 110-80 being one game away from elimination.

The Mavericks looked that moment in the face took down the Suns back home winning Game 6 113-86 to tie the series 3-3 behind the 38 points, 11 rebounds, eight assists, and four steals by Doncic on 11/26 from the floor.

After losing the first three games at the Suns by an average of 19 points, they took control of Game 7 right from the start leading by 57-27 at the half and by as many as 46 points in slamming the door on their franchise-record 64-win regular season with a 123-90 win, led by Doncic who had 27 of his 35 points in the opening half with 10 rebounds on 12/19 shooting, including 6/10 from three-point range. 

To put into context how great Doncic was in the opening-half of Game 7, his 27-point output in the opening 24 minutes equaled the Suns entire output of 27 points. 

When asked in his postgame presser if he knew that he had as many points as the entire Suns team, Doncic responded with a sly smile, "Year, of course." 

The Mavericks 33-point win at the Suns tied the fifth largest margin of victory in Game 7 in NBA Playoff history. 

"He's Luka," Coach Kidd said in his postgame presser about his star players performance in Game 7. "He loves the stage. He loves the--as it gets bigger, he gets better. And I thought he set the tone of getting everyone involved and taking shots when they presented themselves." 

The Mavericks, who earned their 5^th appearance in the West Finals in franchise history are competing for their third appearance in The Finals franchise history not just because of Luka Doncic’s exceptional play this postseason but behind the play of Jalen Brunson, the aforementioned Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, Reggie Bullock, Maxi Kleber, and Davis Bertans.

Brunson, whose averaging 22.3 points and 4.6 rebounds so far this postseason on 46.7 percent from the floor and Dinwiddie in particular have been very impressive this postseason, especially at the start of the opening round with Doncic on the shelf.

Brunson, who will be one very rich man when he hits free agency this summer got the Mavericks back on track with career-high of 41 points with eight boards and five assists in Game 2 versus the Jazz on 15/25 from the field, including 6/10 on his threes. He followed that up with 31 points and six assists in the Game 3 victory. The former Second-Round pick in 2018 out of Villanova continued to shine with Doncic back in the lineup registering 23, 24, and 24 points respectably in Games 4, 5 and 6.

The son of former NBA player and assistant coach Rick Brunson struggled at the start of West Semis against the Suns with 13 and 9 points respectably on combined 9/27 shooting in Games 1 and 2. He got back on track scoring 28, 18, 21, and 18 points in Games 3,4, 5, and 6 respectably and saved his best for last scoring 22 of his 24 points in the second half in the aforementioned Game 7 win at the Suns.

The acquisition of Dinwiddie at the Feb. 10 trade deadline from the Wizards along with Davis Bertans for Kristaps Porzingis gave the Mavericks another shot maker and shot creator on the perimeter to go alongside Doncic.

During the regular season, Dinwiddie showed his worth in the clutch taking down the Mavericks and Nets in their own respective houses with game-winning three-pointers.

In the postseason, the former Detroit Piston, Brooklyn Net, and previously mentioned Wizard has struggled to make shots consistently. While he scored well averaging 15.3 points in the opening-round against the Jazz, scoring 22, 17, and 20 points the first three games, he managed to connect on just 36.7 percent of his shot attempts. The first six games of the series, Dinwiddie totaled 6/27 from three-point range.

He did have a solid performance in the Game 6 close out win at the Jazz with 19 points on 7/12 shooting, including 4/7 from three.

The struggles continued for Dinwiddie the first six games of West Semis against the Suns scoring under 10 points in three of the first five games of the series connecting on 4/17 on this triple tries.

Dinwiddie closed the series well with 15 points on 5/7 on his threes in Game 5 and had 30 points on 11/15 shooting, hitting again 5/7 from three-point range in the Game 7 win at the Suns.  

One specific player that every NBA team in recent years covets is a big wing player who can make threes and defend the opposing team’s best perimeter player(s). Finney-Smith, who went undrafted in 2016 out of University of Florida has turned himself into such a player as he has improved his scoring and three-point accuracy in each of his first six NBA seasons, with 2021-22 being his best with scoring average of 11.0 points on 39.5 percent from three-point range with 4.7 boards on 47.1 percent overall from the floor.

Finney-Smith carried that consistent play from the regular season into the opening round versus the Jazz, where he made at least two triples in all six games, averaging 13.2 points and 6.3 boards for the series on 46.9 percent from the floor and 39.9 percent on his threes. In the Game 6 victory at the Jazz, Finney-Smith had his second career postseason double-double with 18 points and 10 rebounds with five assists on 4/9 from three-point range.

It was a struggle for Finney-Smith at the close of the West Semis against the Suns, scoring 5, 4 and 8 points respectably in Games 5,6 and 7 on a combined 4/11 on his threes. But his play in the middle part of the series played a major role in the Mavericks being in position to win Game 7. He had 14 points on 4/11 from three-point range in Game 3 and had a playoff career-high of 24 points with eight rebounds on 8/12 on his threes in Game 4. Finney-Smith hit a career-high five threes in the first half and his eight triples in Game 4.

They have won a road game in an NBA postseason record 25 straight series dating back to the 2013 postseason, which was their first playoff appearance since 2007.

The Warriors enter this series as the more experienced team whose has faced playoff pressure and has come out on the right side of the scoreboards more often than not.

To put this into context, they have gone under head coach Steve Kerr 20-2 in playoff series, with their only defeats coming in the 2016 Finals to the LeBron James led Cleveland Cavaliers and the 2019 Finals to the Raptors. That also includes a 5-0 mark in the West Finals.  

The main concern for the Warriors is that the health of the roster and their head coach in Kerr, who missed Games 4, 5 and 6 of the West Semis against the Grizzlies because of Health and Safety Protocols. They have also been without Iguodala, 2015 Finals MVP the last seven playoff games because of a neck issue and Porter, Jr. whose missed the last two games because of a sore right foot.

Assistant coach Mike Brown, who will be the new head coach of the Sacramento Kings starting in the 2022-23 season brought experience, steadiness, and a defensive aptitude in Kerr’s absence. The Warriors won two of the three games under Brown, but their offensive execution left a lot to be desired as they fell into the old habit of turning the ball over at a high rate with 16, 22, and 19 respectably.

In a series where they will face the one guy who claim the best player in the series over the “Splash Brothers” duo of Curry and Thompson in Doncic, getting Iguodala and Porter, Jr. back into the fold means the Warriors will be able to give Doncic a plethora of different defenders and different defensive coverages from those two along with Green, who played in just one of the four games in the regular season, Thompson, Kuminga, and Wiggins. They hoped to also have Payton II as another defensive option against Doncic, but he has been lost since injuring his arm when he was fouled hard on a drive to the hoop by the Grizzlies Dillon Brooks in Game 2 of West Semis.  

“They just won a Game 7 on the road against the best team in the league. So, I’m sure they’re feeling confident We’re feeling confident,” Coach Kerr said about facing the Mavericks. “Our guys have guts. They’re not afraid of anything, and that’s where our experience helps us.”

All the experience in the world cannot prepare you to go against someone like Doncic, who in his first postseason experience in 2020 against the Clippers in the restart in Orlando, FL averaged 31 points, 9.7 assists and 9.8 rebounds on 50 percent from the field and 36.4 percent on his triple tries. In the 2021 First Round against the Clipper again, Doncic averaged 35.7 points 10.3 assists and 7.9 boards on 49 percent from the floor and 40.8 percent from three-point range. 

The problem is that Doncic did not have the kind of supporting cast to get him over the hump. He had in Game 6 of the 2021 First Round versus the Clippers 38 points and nine assists. In Game 7 of that series at the Clippers, Doncic had 46 points and 14 assists. Both those epic individual performances ended with a loss by the Mavericks.

Because of the production the Mavericks have gotten from the aforementioned Brunson, Dinwiddie, Finney-Smith, Kleber, and Bertans because Doncic has decided to share the sugar at the offensive end, the Mavericks have been on the right side of the scoreboard while Doncic has continued to be a dominant force with averages of 31.5 points, 10.1 boards, and 6.6 assists on 47.4 percent from the floor and 34.7 percent on his threes so far this postseason.  He has also shot a solid 76.9 percent at the foul line compared to 65.6 and 52.9 percent respectably his first two postseason appearances.

That has resulted in the Mavericks winning both their elimination games in the West Semis against the Suns bringing their mark to 2-2 when facing elimination in their playoff history with Doncic.

“What I learned from Game 7 last year and I said we learned a lot… We stayed together. We played hard and we had a chance, and I think we played unbelievably tonight,” Doncic, who averaged 32.6 points, 9.9 rebounds and seven assists in West Semis against the Suns said after Game 7 to NBA on TNT’s Allie LaForce after the win.  

He also said about winning Game 7 at the Suns in his postgame presser with the media, "Nobody picked us. So, it was motivational for us." 

Doncic added, "Honestly, I think we deserved this. We've been playing hard the whole series. Maybe a couple games here we weren't ourselves. But you know we came here with a statement. Game 7. We believed. Our locker room believed. Everybody believed. So, I'm just happy."  

While this might be his first bit of postseason success on the NBA stage, Doncic has been doing this since the middle of his teens overseas. So, to see what he did in Game 7 at the Suns with his team’s season on the line, he simply played free and easy making shot after shot and smiling each time as he put one dagger after another in the heart of the Suns on their homecourt.

Doncic hopes to do the same to the Warriors, who he averaged 31.5 points, nine rebounds and 5.5 assists against in their four-game season series. In his career, Doncic has averaged 29.4 points against the Warriors, that is the third most in history (minimum of 10 games) trailing only the respective scoring averages of 29.7 by Los Angeles Lakers four-time Kia MVP and four-time NBA champion LeBron James and 30 points by two-time NBA champion and two-time Finals MVP Kevin Durant of the Brooklyn Nets. He also is behind Curry with the second highest scoring average amongst point guards since 2020-21 NBA campaign at 28.7 points per game.   

“Before Game 7, you know, I was saying this might be my last game of the NBA season. But I wasn’t ready. I wanted to play basketball…,” Doncic said at the start of this week about wanting to continue the Mavericks’ postseason ride. “I get to play on this floor, you never know. So, I’m just happy to be playing basketball, man. It’s a pleasure for me.”

This growth that we have seen from Doncic is from his willingness in the early part of the regular season being called out by Coach Kidd for not coming into the season in shape, which led him to be on the shelf for a 10-game period because of a knee and ankle issues.

Then came the fact that he was voted a start in this past February’s All-Star game.

Doncic took that to heart and not only got in better shape, but his willingness also to buy into the Mavericks playing better defense along mentioned his willingness to share the offensive load with Brunson and Dinwiddie, specifically.

Doncic knows he will need to be even better with his scoring and playmaking if the Mavericks want to deny the Warriors a chance at their fifth title in franchise history.

“I mean, they’re a championship team, you know. It’s going to be really though again. But we got to focus now on them,” Doncic said to LaForce after the win at the Suns. 

The First Team All-NBA selection added on Monday in his media availability, " Obviously, they've got Steph [Curry] and Klay [Thompson]. Those two guys arguably the best shooters ever. So, it's going to be really tough. But I think both teams are amazing teams. But they differently. So, we're going to have to play a little different than we played against Phoenix, especially defensively. But that's it. Both great teams."   

Because of all the attention Doncic has drawn by the opposing defense so far this postseason, it has produced a plethora of open three-pointers, which the Mavericks have connected on a plethora of.

Mavericks were a +99 on their threes in the opening-round against the Jazz and a +132 on their triples in West Semis against the Suns. 

“Luka’s a little different…,” Coach Kidd said to the media on Monday. “As you guys would put it, the bigger it gets, the better he plays. So, hopefully, that what happens for us. But again, we don’t talk about the big stage. It’s just we’re on the road trying to figure out a way to win.” 

Back in 2007 in the opening-round of the 2007 Playoffs as mentioned, the “We Believe” Golden State Warriors, the No. 8 Seed led by Hall of Fame head coach Don Nelson, Baron Davis, the co-host of the “All The Smoke” podcast Stephen Jackson and ESPN NBA analyst Matt Barnes, and Jason Richardson took down the No. 1 Seeded Dallas Mavericks led by that season’s Kia MVP and future Hall of Famer Dirk Nowitzki and then head coach and former Warriors guard Avery Johnson. The Mavericks were as mentioned to start denied their chance to compete for a championship.

This year’s Dallas Mavericks led by rising star and possible future league MVP Luka Doncic want to return the favor of stopping the Warriors and their two-time Kia MVP Stephen Curry and his fellow future Hall of Fame teammates Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green their shot at their fourth NBA title and the fifth for the team in their history.

The Warriors though have a talented and proven squad led by Curry, Thompson, and Green and head coach Steve Kerr, who understand the goal at hand and will be prepared for the challenge. 

"Did the two years off re-motivate us? Absolutely," Curry said on Monday about being back in the Western Conference Finals. "I always want that feeling of winning a championship. How do I get that feeling back?" 

"This one feels good. But we know how tough the next round is going to be," Green said about taking on the Mavericks in the Western Conference Finals. 

The other thing the Warriors have in their favors is they have home court advantage and have gone 6-0 so far at Chase Center in the 2022 NBA Playoffs. 

"Home court advantage is nice. But you can't get too carried away if you win the first one and even win the next one," Coach Kerr said on Monday. "Phoenix did that last round and they lost four of the next five. So, you just take it one game at a time." 

"Home court's nice, but it doesn't guarantee anything obviously." 

Prediction: Warriors in six games.  

Information, statistics, and quotations are courtesy of 5/13/2022 12:30 a.m. ESPN's "Sportscenter With Scott Van Pelt" from Washington, D.C.; 5/15/2022 8 p.m. “Dallas Mavericks versus Phoenix Suns” Game 7 Western Conference Semifinals 2022 NBA Playoffs, presented by Google Pixel on TNT, presented by Clorox With Kevin Harlan, Reggie Miller, and Allie LaForce; 5/15/2022 10:30 p.m. “Inside the NBA,” presented by Kia TNT with Ernie Johnson, Kenny Smith, Charles Barkley, and Shaquille O’Neal; 5/16/2022 3 p.m. ESPN's "NBA Today," presented by PNC Bank from Los Angeles, CA and Chicago, IL with Malika Andrews, Kendrick Perkins, Ramona Shelburne, Matt Barnes, Richard Jefferson, and Adrian Wojnarowski; 5/16/2022 www.nba.com story, “Series Preview: Battle-Tested Warriors Take On Surging Mavericks,” By Mark Medina; 5/16/2022 7 p.m. “NBA Countdown” ESPN, presented by MTN Dew with Mike Greenberg, Stephen A. Smith, Jalen Rose, Michael Wilbon, Adrian Wojnarowski, Malika Andrews, Kendrick Perkins and Jay Bilas; www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/3975/stephen-curry; www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/6475/klay-thompson; www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/6589/draymond-green; www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/4277956/jordan-poole; www.espn.com/nba/player/gamlog/_/id/3059319/andrew-wiggins; www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelong/_/id/39344672/jalen-brunson; www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/2580782/spencer-dinwiddie and www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/2578185/dorian-finney-smith.