It is spring
time and that means the temperatures are warmer. Flowers are blossoming and
there are 16 teams that have battled through the 82-game grind of the regular
season and only one of them will win 16 more games and claim the Larry O’Brien
Trophy as the 2013 NBA Champions. Here is a breakdown as well as predictions of
the eight playoff series in the Eastern and Western Conference Quarterfinals.
Abbreviation
Key: ppg-points per game; rpg-rebounds per game; apg assists per game;
bpg-block shots per game. spg-steals per game; FG%-Field Goal percentage; 3-Pt.%-three-point
percentage.
Eastern
Conference
(1)
Miami Heat
(66-16) versus (8) Milwaukee Bucks; Miami won three of the four regular season
meetings.
On June 21,
2012, the Miami Heat won their second championship in franchise history by
defeating the defending Western Conference champion Oklahoma City Thunder
121-106 to win The NBA Finals 4-1.
It was the first
title for the “Big 3” of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh.
This season,
they showed that they have no plans of relinquishing their NBA crown as they
won a franchise best 66 games. They won a franchise best 37 games at home,
going 37-4 at the American Airlines Arena. Their 29-12 record on the road was
the best in the league. They won 18 of their last 19 games on the road after
splitting their first 22 games.
The team really
hit their stride by winning 27 games in succession from Feb. 3 to Mar. 27,
which is the 2nd best winning streak in NBA history. Only the
1971-72 World Champion Los Angeles Lakers had a longer winning streak of 33
games in a row.
James, who is on
the verge of winning his fourth Most Valuable Player Award, had a stellar
season averaging 26.8 ppg (4th NBA), eight rebounds-career best and
7.3 assists.
On top of that,
he had career-highs in field goal percentage (56.5-5th NBA) and
three-point percentage (40.6%).
He was
especially impressive against the Bucks this season averaging 27.5 points, 8.3
boards and 7.3 assists on 55.6 percent from the field in the four games in the
regular season.
Wade and Bosh
were very stellar themselves against the Bucks scoring 24.0 and 21.3 points on
50.9 and 59.1 percent from the floor respectably. Bosh also averaged 13.7
boards against the Bucks in the regular season.
With all of that
working against them, the question is how do the Bucks be competitive, let
alone have a chance in this series?
For starters,
they must rebound the ball well, which they have done all season long ranking 5th
in the league at 44.0 caroms per contest.
The starting
backcourt of Brandon Jennings (23.8 ppg, 5.8 apg, 2.5 spg vs. Heat) and Monta
Ellis (19.2, 6.0 apg, 2.1 spg) must play efficiently. Shooting 41.6 and 39.9
percent, which Jennings and Ellis did during the regular season ware not cut it
against Miami.
The supporting
cast of Ersan Ilyasova (13.2 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 46.2 FG%, 44.4 3-Pt.%), Mike
Dunleavy (10.5 ppg, 44.2 FG%, 42.8 3-Pt.%), J.J. Redick (12.3 ppg) and Larry
Sanders (9.8 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 2.8 bpg-2nd NBA) must play big on both
ends.
On paper, this
series looks like a mismatch. Mainly because along with the “Big 3,” the Heat role
players of Shane Battier, Ray Allen, Mario Chalmers, Norris Cole, Rashard
Lewis, Chris Andersen and Udonis Haslem are better.
More than
anything, the Heat knows its championship or bust. None of their regular season
accomplishments will matter if they do not capture their second consecutive
title.
What gives the
Bucks hope thought that they can compete is that they defeated Miami on Dec. 29
104-85 at home.
The Bucks
outscored the Heat 35-14 in the fourth quarter. They outscored the Heat 21-14
in fast break points. They had 29 assists compared to Miami’s 18 and they
scored 25 points off of 21 Miami turnovers.
Jennings had a
team-high 25 points along with seven assists and four steals in the victory.
Sanders had 16 points, 11 boards and four blocks.
The Bucks came
close to defeating the Heat in their first meeting, a 113-106 setback in overtime
in Miami on Nov. 21. The Bucks overcame
a 2915 first quarter to win the second and third quarters 58-42 combined, but
were outscored 15-8 in the extra stanza.
The Bucks were
led by Jennings, who had 19 points, seven boards, six assists and five steals,
but he connected on 9 of his 25 shots, including going 1 for 8 from three-point
range.
Rookie forward
John Henson had 17 points and 18 boards off the bench.
Prediction: Heat
wins series 4-0.
(2)
New York Knicks
(54-28) versus (7) Boston Celtics (41-40); Knicks won three of the four
regulars seasons meetings.
This is a series
that features two teams that are in very different places than they were two
seasons ago.
In the 2011
postseason quarterfinal match-up, it was the Celtics who had home court
advantage and it was the Knicks with a whole lot of question marks. The Celtics
swept the Knicks 4-0.
Fast forward to
this season’s quarterfinal series it is the Knicks who have the home court
advantage and all the momentum.
They won 54
games in the regular season, their most in 16 years. They won their first
Atlantic Division title since 1993-94, where they made it to the Finals,
falling to the Houston Rockets in seven games.
Forward Carmelo
Anthony led the NBA in scoring at 28.7 points per contest, over taking Oklahoma
City Thunder forward Kevin Durant, who had led the NBA the past three seasons
in that department.
For the C’s, it
has been a season of inconsistency and overcoming injuries. The acquisitions
via free agency of guards Jason Terry (10.1 ppg, 43.4 FG%, 37.2 3-Pt.%),
Courtney Lee (7.8 ppg) have not panned out the way the team hoped.
They lost their
floor general Rajon Rondo (13.7 ppg, 11.1 apg-led NBA, 5.6 rpg) to a torn ACL
on Jan. 25, a 123-111 double overtime loss at the Atlanta Hawks. They also lost
rookie forward Jared Sullinger (6.0 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 49.3 FG%) who had
season-ending back surgery earlier this season.
With all the
injuries, the Celtics went 21-17 and a big reason why is the play of forward
Jeff Green (12.8 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 46.4 FG%, 38.5 3-Pt.%), who has averaged 16.6
points a game since the loss of Rondo.
While the Knicks
are the higher seed and in some ways are the better team, the Celtics have
experience and the toughness to win it.
While Anthony
averaged 25.3 points in the four-game regular season series, he shot just 35
percent from the field.
On top of that,
the Celtics are 17-7, including the playoffs since acquiring Kevin Garnett five
seasons ago.
In looking at
this series, it comes down to three main things.
First, can the
Knicks shoot the ball well from three-point range? In the four games against
the Celtics, they made 22 more trifectas than Boston. That difference amounted
to the Knicks averaging 98.3 in the four games, while the Celtics averaged just
90.5.
In the regular
season, the Knicks were 37-8 when they made 11 three-point shots or more and
just 17-20 when they connected on 10 shots or less from behind the arc.
Second, which
front line will outdo the other?
The Knicks have
been pretty banged in the frontcourt late in the season. Starting center Tyson
Chandler (9.0 ppg, 12.5 rpg, 62.5 FG% in two games against Celtics) has missed
16 of the last 20 to close the season with a bulging disc in his neck. The Knicks
were 12-4 in the months of March and April without their man in the middle.
Forward Kenyon
Martin, who the Knicks signed back in February, has played well, but he missed
seven of the final eight games of the regular season because of a sprained ankle
and sore knee.
Rookie guard
Pablo Prigioni, who has been starting late in the season injured an ankle in
the regular season finale versus the Hawks last Wednesday and is listed as
day-to-day.
Forward Rasheed
Wallace, who had not played since December because of a foot injury announced
early last week that he was retiring.
On top of that,
the Knicks waived forward/center Kurt Thomas and there is no timetable for the
return of forward Amar’e Stoudemire, who has played in just 29 games this
season because of a knee injury.
Before their
finale on Apr. 17 versus the Hawks, the Knicks signed center Earl Barron,
who had 11 points and a career-high 18 rebounds in the 98-92 win. They also
signed for his second stint with the team forward/guard Quentin Richardson, who
had five points and 10 boards in the aforementioned contest.
For the Celtics,
an important key to them making some noise this series is the health of Garnett
(14.8 ppg, 7.8 rpg), who missed 12 of the final 17 games of the season with
inflammation in his left ankle and forward Paul Pierce (18.6 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 4.8
apg) missed three of the final eight games with sore ankles.
The third key is
which role players will come to the fore front to tip the series in their
team’s favor. Will it be Sixth Man of the Year candidate guards J.R. Smith
(18.1 ppg, 5.3 rpg), Iman Shumpert (6.8 ppg), rookie forward Chris Copeland
(8.7 ppg, 47.9 FG%, 42.1 3-Pt.%) of the Knicks or guards Avery Bradley (9.2
ppg), Jordan Crawford (9.1 ppg) and forward Brandon Bass (8.7 ppg, 5.2 rpg) for
the Celtics.
This has the
makings of a seven games and another one in this rivalry of Northeast coast
teams, who have met in the postseason 13 prior times. The Celtics are 34-24
all-time in the postseason against the Knicks.
For the Celtics,
this might be their last run with Garnett and Pierce. For the Knicks it’s now
or never. They have won just one playoff game in the last 12 years and they
have not won a first round series since 2000.
Prediction:
Knicks in six games.
(3) Indiana Pacers (49-32) versus (6) Atlanta Hawks (44-38): Series tied 2-2
After their
amazing season a year ago where they beat the Orlando Magic in the first round
4-1 and took the eventual NBA Champion Miami Heat to the edge, but falling 4-2
in the Conference Semis, the Indiana Pacers looked like a team on the rise in
the East.
At the start of
this season though, those dreams of greatness seemed derailed when last year’s
leading scorer Danny Granger was out because of knee surgery. Despite coming
back after the all-star break, he only managed to play in five games this
season.
The issue of his
absence was put to rest though by the incredible play of first-time all-star
swingman Paul George. The Most Improved Player candidate had career-highs of
17.4 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 4.1 apg and 1.8 spg.
Another big
reason why the Pacers captured their first Central Division title since 2003-04
was their stellar defense. They finished second points allowed at 90.7 per
game. They were No. 1 in rebounds per game at 45.9, in opponent’s field goal
percentage at 42.0 percent and in opponent’s three-point percentage at 32.7.
They were tied for fourth in block shots per contest at 6.3.
In their two
victories over the Hawks this season, the Pacers were a plus 10 on the boards.
They were a minus nine in the two losses.
That dismal on
the boards in their two setbacks against the Hawks along with their
inconsistent play at the defensive end, where they gave up 100 points on three
occasions are why the Pacers lost five of their final six games to close the
regular season.
The Hawks did
not have a stellar finish to their season either dropping their final two games
and seven of their last 10 to fall from the No. 5 spot in the East to No. 6.
The Hawks
despite all of that and what has happened to them going back to the off-season;
they have played well all things considered.
Back in the
off-season, Hawks’ general manager Danny Ferry traded perennial all-star Joe
Johnson to the Brooklyn Nets and forward Marvin Williams to the Utah Jazz to
clear cap space for this summer where two-thirds of the roster will be
unrestricted free agents.
One big cloud
hanging over the team has been the uncertain future of forward Josh Smith (17.5
ppg-leads team, 8.4 rpg, 4.2 apg, 1.8 bpg-leads team), who will be a free agent
when the Hawks season ends. The team tried to trade their talented forward
before the trade deadline back in February, but there were no suitors.
The team lost
their Sixth Man Lou Williams (14.1 ppg, 36.6 3-Pt.%) for the rest of the season
on Jan. 18 at the Nets where he suffered a torn ACL. The team went 22-21 in his
absence.
The Hawks also lost
back-up center Zaza Pachulia (5.9 ppg, 6.5 rpg) who had season-ending surgery
on his right Achilles back in March.
This series will
come down to the power physicality of the Pacers versus the speed and finesse
of the Hawks.
A season ago,
Pacers starting center Roy Hibbert posted career-highs of 12.8 ppg, 8.8 rpg,
two blocks on 49.7 percent from the field. This season he is scoring just 11.9
points with 8.3 boards and blocking 2.6 shots per game.
He must play a
whole lot better in this series as compared to the regular season where he
averaged just 9.5 points, 7.3 rebounds on 46.2 percent against the Hawks.
Starting forward
David West has led the Pacers with 21.3 points against the Hawks this season.
He must average more than 5.7 boards, which he did against the Hawks this
season. He must grab at least the 7.7 that he did during the regular season.
For the Hawks,
the tandem of Smith and starting center Al Horford must play well if the Hawks
are going to compete in this series.
Smith cannot put
up 13.3 points and six boards like he did against the Pacers in the four
matchups if the Hawks are going to have a chance.
Horford led the
Hawks in scoring against the Pacers this season averaging 16.0 points per
contest. Overall the former Florida Gator averaged 17.4 points and 10.2
rebounds on a team leading 54.3 percent from the floor during the regular
season.
Another big
match-up is at the lead guard spot between the Pacers George Hill and the Hawks
Jeff Teague.
While Hill (14.2
ppg, 4.7 apg, 44.3 FG%, 36.8 3-Pt.%) is the steady calm that runs the Pacers
offense, which at times can be shaky.
Teague in his
third season out of Wake Forest has had a career-year averaging 14.6 points,
7.2 assists, 1.5 steals on 45.1 percent from the floor. The question is can he
take his game to another level in the postseason?
A big X-factor
that may swing this series one way or the other is the role players for both
teams.
Will it be guard
Lance Stephenson (8.8 ppg, 3.9 rpg), forward Tyler Hansbrough (7.0 ppg, 4.6
rpg) and center Ian Mahinmi (5.0 ppg, 3.9 rpg) that will make the difference or
will it be Devin Harris (9.9 ppg), forward/guard Kyle Korver (10.9 ppg, 46.1
FG%, 45.7 3-Pt.%) or forward Ivan Johnson (6.6 ppg, 3.9 rpg)?
Prediction:
Pacers in five games.
(4)
Brooklyn Nets
(49-33) versus (5) Chicago Bulls (45-37): Bulls won three of the four regular
season meetings.
When this season
began, one team was moving into a new town and new arena bringing with them a
great deal of expectations, while the other team outside of their confines had
the lowest of expectations.
The Brooklyn
Nets after so many season of playing in the swamps of New Jersey moved to the
fancy state of the art Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY.
In the
off-season, they re-signed lead guard Deron Williams (18.9 ppg, 7.7 apg). They
acquired guard Joe Johnson (16.3 ppg) from the Hawks, re-signed starting center
Brook Lopez (19.4 ppg-leads team, 6.9 rpg) as well as starting small forward
Gerald Wallace (7.7 ppg, 4.6 rpg) and back-up forward Kris Humphries.
In free agency,
the team signed center Andray Blatche (10.3 ppg, 5.1 rpg), forward Reggie Evans
(4.5 ppg, 11.1 rpg) and guard C.J. Watson.
They began this
season like gang busters with an 11-4 record and then head coach Avery Johnson
was named NBA Head Coach of the Month for November 2012.
They suffered 10
losses in 13 games in the December and Johnson was gone and he was replaced by
assistant coach P.J. Carlesimo.
The Nets
proceeded to win nine of their next 10 under their interim head coach, which
included a seven-game winning streak. They finished the season 35-19 and
claimed home court advantage in the first round.
Their 49
victories are their most since 2005-06 as well as their first playoff
appearance since 2006-07 where they lost to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the
Semifinals 4-2.
A big reason for
the Nets resurgence especially after the all-star break is the play of
Williams, who had been suffering from wrist and ankle problems.
After the break,
Williams averaged 22.9 ppg, eight assists on 48 percent from the floor and 42
percent from three-point land.
Then there’s the
Chicago Bulls, who seemed poised a season ago to challenge the Heat for the East
crown. Those dreams went down the drain in Game 1 of the Quarterfinals against
the Philadelphia 76ers when 2011 MVP Derrick Rose suffered a torn ACL.
Aside from a few
work out sessions before games and speculations behind the scenes, Rose has not
been on the court this season. There has been no timetable for his return,
contrary to the prior timetable for his return in late February or March.
Rose’s injury
has not been the only problem for the boys from the “Windy City.” Head coach
Tom Thibodeau’s team has used 15 different starting lineups this season and
they had 126 games missed due to injury between forwards Luol Deng (16.5 ppg,
6.3 rpg), Carlos Boozer (16.2 ppg, 9.8 rpg) and Taj Gibson (8.0 ppg, 5.3 rpg)
centers Joakim Noah (11.9 ppg, 11.1 rpg, 4.0 apg, 2.1 bpg) and Nazr Mohammed,
guards Richard “Rip” Hamilton (9.8 ppg), Marco Bellineli (9.6 ppg) and Kirk
Hinrich (7.7 ppg, 5.2 apg).
This is a series
that will come down to the play of Williams versus the Bulls point guards by
committee. The starting centers for the two teams Noah and Lopez and which team
can manage enough consistent offense to win.
The Nets, who averaged
96.9 points per contest, 17th NBA managed just 87.5 points in the
four regular season meetings against the Bulls. They shot just 45 percent from
the floor, scored just 40.5 points in the paint and turn the ball over on
average 18.3 times.
Their lone
victory over the Bulls came on Feb. 1 at Barclays Center 93-89. The Nets shot
52 percent from the floor and out-rebounded Chicago 40-29. Lopez had a
game-high 20 points.
The Nets held on
to the victory that night by outscoring the Bulls 30-22 in the fourth quarter
after getting outscored 28-17 and 25-22 in the middle two quarters respectably.
In their Apr. 4
contest versus the Bulls, the Nets got off to a great start leading 26-13 after
the first period. The Nets won each of the next three quarters, 23-21, 29-20
and 27-23 and they held on for a 92-90 win.
The Bulls were
led by the 29 points and 18 boards from Boozer. Williams had a game-high 30
points to go along with 10 assists. Lopez had 28 points, but he committed a
costly turnover and had two key misses in the closing moments that doomed the
Nets.
This series can
be classified as a knock out, drag out, get after it, take no prisoners.
These are two of
the top rebounding teams in the business with the Bulls ranking 10th
at 42.8 a game and the Nets rank 8th at 43.2. When it comes to
points allowed, the Nets are 3rd giving up just 92.9 per contest (3rd
NBA) and the Bulls surrender just 95.1 points a game (6th NBA).
While the Nets
opposition shoots better from the floor at 46.4 percent (22nd NBA)
Bulls’ opponents hit just 44.3 percent of their shots (8th NBA).
Conventional
wisdom says the Nets should win this series, but for both teams, this season
has not been conventional. The Bulls have a chance above all else, their
ability to win on the road, where they were 21-20 away from the United Center.
Prediction: Nets
in seven games.
Western
Conference
(1) Oklahoma City Thunder (60-22) versus (8) Houston Rockets (45-37): Thunder won two of the three regular season meetings
In the NBA,
sometimes just one single move can change the fortunes of one team.
That is what
happened before the start of this season when guard James Harden was traded
from the Thunder to the Rockets for guard Kevin Martin.
Harden (25.9
ppg, 4.9 rpg, 5.8 apg), who became a first time all-star this season, turned
the Rockets from a questionable team into a playoff team.
This will be the
team’s first playoff appearance in four seasons.
Harden along
with the signings of new backcourt mate Jeremy Lin (13.4 ppg, 6.1 apg, 1.6
spg), starting center Omer Asik (10.1 ppg, 11.7 rpg-3rd NBA),
swingman Carlos Delfino (10.6 ppg, 37.5 3-Pt.%) and starting small forward
Chandler Parsons (15.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg 48.6 FG%, 38.5 3-Pt.%) are the reasons the
Rockets ranked 2nd in the league in scoring at 106.0 per game, 6th
in assists at 23.2, 9th in field goal percentage at 46.1 percent and
tied for 8th in three-point percentage at 36.6 percent, making 106
per contest, ranking second only to the Knicks.
As good as they
are at the offensive end they are that bad at the defensive end. While they
rank 7th in rebounding at 43.4 caroms per game, they are 28th
in points allowed at 102.5, tied for 15th in field goal percentage
allowed at 45.4, 24th in block shots per contest at 4.4 and they
turn the ball over 16.4 times per game, dead last in the NBA.
That is not the
recipe to defeat the Thunder, who averaged 121 points per game in the three
regular season meetings.
Kevin Durant,
the NBA’s second leading scorer at 28.1 a game averaged 26.3, seven boards on
47.2 from the floor and 40 percent from three-point territory.
To put Durant’s season in perspective, he is just the second player in NBA history to average 28 points on 50-plus percent from the floor, 40-plus percent from three-point range and 90-plus percent from the free-throw line. Durant averaged the aforementioned 28.1 points per game, 7.9 boards, and 4.6 assists on 51.0 percent from the floor, 41.6 percent from three-point land and 90.5 percent from the charity stripe. Hall of Famer of the Boston Celtics Larry Bird is the only other player to accomplish that and he did it in 1986-87 (28.1 ppg, 52.5 FG%, 40.0 3-Pt.%, 91.0 FT%) and 1987-88 (29.9 ppg, 52.7 FG%, 41.4 3-Pt.%, 91.6 FT%).
His all-star
running mate guard Russell Westbrook has been spectacular himself this season
against the Rockets averaging 23.3 points, 8.3 assists, 7.7 rebounds on 43.9
percent shooting.
The first two
games of the season series went to the Thunder by wide margins of 120-98 on
Nov. 28, 2012 and 124-94 on Dec. 29, 2012 at the Thunder.
The third
match-up at Houston’s Toyota Center on Feb. 20, the Rockets rose up as Harden,
who averaged 29.3 points against his former team during the regular season had
a career-high of 46 points on 14 for 19 shooting, including 7 for 8 from
three-point range and 11 for 12 from the free-throw line as the Rockets won
122-119.
Lin had 29
points in that contest to go along with seven assists, six boards on 12 for 22
from the field. Parsons had 17 points.
While this
series features two of the highest scoring teams in the business, the Thunder
are the more efficient team scoring 105.7 points a game (3rd NBA).
They rebound the ball slightly better at 43.6 (6th NBA) and they take
care of business at the defensive end surrendering just 96.5 points per game (9th
NBA). They lead the league in points off turnovers at 18.1 and in fast break
points at 16.7.
Prediction: Thunder
in five games.
(2)
San Antonio
Spurs (58-24) versus (7) Los Angeles Lakers (45-37): Spurs won two of the three
regular season meetings.
When this season
began, many had these two teams in the top three in the West, especially with
the talent on both sides and their past history in the last 15 seasons meeting
in the playoffs at some point in the Semis or the Conference Finals.
The Spurs have
lived up to their high expectations finishing second in the West standings.
The “Big 3” of forward
Tim Duncan (17.8 ppg, 9.9 rpg-leads team, 2.7 bpg-leads team), guard Tony Parker
(20.3 ppg-leads team, 7.6 apg-leads team, 52.3 FG%) and Manu Ginobili (11.8
ppg, 4.6 apg) were once again at the top of their games coming into the
postseason hoping to guide the Spurs to their fifth title in franchise history.
The team has
been leaking oil as this season concluded dropping three straight contests,
seven setbacks in their last 10 games and a 12-10 finish to their season, which
included seven consecutive losses on the road.
A lot of that
has to do with the injuries to Parker, who has battled ankle injury that he
suffered on Mar. 1 and Ginobili, who returned in the season finale versus the
Minnesota Timberwolves on Apr. 17.
The Spurs will
begin the playoffs without back-up forward/center Boris Diaw who had back
surgery to remove a cyst in his spine and they waived swingman Stephen Jackson
and signed in his place veteran swingman Tracy McGrady.
As for the Spurs
opponent the Lakers, they have had so many twists and turns this season that it
would have made for a great television soap opera.
At one point
this season, the team was seven games under .500 (18-25) and on the outside of
the playoffs picture.
The starting
five of Steve Nash, Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard, Metta World Peace and Pau Gasol
have missed a combined 82 games this season because of injury. Even key
reserves Steve Blake and Jordan Hill have missed 90 games because of injury.
What made
matters even worse is that two weeks ago versus the Golden State Warriors,
Bryant who had a stellar game with 34 points, injured his foot late in the
fourth quarter of the 118-116 win.
It was revealed
the next day that the NBA’s third leading scorer at 27.3 per game ruptured his
left Achilles.
He is lost for
the rest of the season and maybe for the start of next season. There is
question of whether he could come back from this, however if there is anyone
that can though it is him.
Going forward,
if the Lakers have any chance of competing in this series with the Spurs, the
front court tandem of Howard and Gasol must play great.
How is that
possible you say considering they both have had subpar seasons to this point.
In their third
and final meeting against the Spurs on Apr. 14, Howard, who was second in the
NBA in double-doubles (points and rebounds) with 48 had 26 points, 17 rebounds
and four blocks in the 91-86 victory. Gasol, who had just seven points on 3 for
17 shooting, did have 16 rebounds and three blocks.
In the regular
season finale versus the Rockets on Apr. 17, Gasol had his seventh career
triple-double of 17 points, 20 rebounds and 11 assists to go along with two
blocks in the 99-95 overtime win. Howard had 16 points, 18 boards, three steals
and four blocks.
Blake led the
way with 24 points, seven boards and seven assists. Forward Antawn Jamison had
16 off the bench and World Peace added 12.
If Howard (17.1
ppg, 12.4 rpg-led NBA, 2.5 bpg) and Gasol (13.7 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 46.6 FG%) can
play to the level they have to close the regular season the Lakers have a chance.
Having Nash
contribute like we have seen the two-time MVP do for a great deal of his career
would increase the Lakers chances.
If the Spurs
play to the level we have become accustomed to seeing them play, it will be
that much harder for the Lakers.
Prediction:
Spurs in six games
(3)
Denver Nuggets (57-25)
versus (6) Golden State Warriors (47-35): Nuggets won three of the four regular
season meetings.
Fast, explosive,
potent are the words that describe the offenses of the two teams in this first
round match-up.
The Nuggets, who
led the NBA at 106.1 points per game, are 5th in field goal
percentage at 47.8 and third in assists at 24.4.
Their offensive
attack is predicated on scoring in the paint which they lead the league at 58
points per contest, getting second chance points on offensive rebounds, scoring
in the open court as well as balance scoring.
Nine players
during the regular season averaged between eight and 16.7 points per contest.
In the season
series against the Warriors, the Nuggets had a plus differential at the foul
line.
The Warriors,
who are 7trh in the league in scoring at 101.2 per game, rank 11 in the league
in field goal percentage at 45.8 and 15th in assists at 22.5.
Their offense is
perimeter oriented where they are No. 1 in the NBA in three-point percentage at
40.3 percent and are 8th in makes at eight per contest.
How potent is
the Warriors three-point attack? Starting point guard Stephen Curry (22.9 ppg,
6.9 apg, 1.6 steals-all lead team) made an NBA regular season record 272
threes, breaking Heat guard Ray Allen’s record of 269 treys that he made back
in 2005-06 as a member of the then Seattle Supersonics.
For both of
these teams, this destination of this postseason represents a journey that
began two seasons ago.
The Nuggets back
then made the difficult decision to trade all-star forward Carmelo Anthony to
the Knicks and in return received forward Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler,
Timofey Mosgov and Raymond Felton, who is back now with the Knicks.
In the playoffs
that season, they lost in the first round to the Western Conference runner-up
the Thunder in five games.
The next season,
the Nuggets on 38 games in the condensed 66-game campaign and lost to the
Lakers in the first round in seven games.
In that season,
they traded starting center Nene to the Wizards in exchange for center JaVale
McGee. They also drafted in the summer forward Kenneth Faried, out of Morehead
State (11.5 ppg, 9.2 rpg-leads team, 55.2 FG%) The 22nd pick of the
2011 draft has been a jewel for them in his first two seasons.
This past
off-season, the Nuggets added another key piece in acquiring in a three-team
deal swingman Andre Iguodala (13.0 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 5.4 apg, 1.7 spg-leads team),
who led the team in scoring against the Warriors this regular season at 20 in
the four games.
For the
Warriors, their rise to making their first playoff appearance since 2007 began
with the hire of former NBA on ESPN/ABC & Yankees Entertainment and Sports
Network Nets analyst and 17-year veteran point guard Mark Jackson as head coach
on June 16, 2011.
Last season, the
Warriors traded one of their most popular players in guard Monta Ellis to the
Bucks for Andrew Bogut, who missed the rest of that season because of injury.
The traded rose
Curry and forward David Lee and forward David Lee to the role as team
co-captains and increased the role of the 11th overall pick of the
draft that off-season in guard Klay Thompson out of Washington State
University.
This past
off-season, the Warriors acquired guard Jarrett Jack from the New Orleans Hornets
and he has been solid off the bench this season. The Sixth Man of the Year
candidate averaged 12.9 points, 5.6 assists on 45.2 percent from the field and
40.4 percent from three-point range.
On Aug. 1 the
team signed forward Carl Landry (10.8 ppg, 6.0 rpg). In the draft they selected
with the 7th overall pick forward Harrison Barnes (9.2 ppg, 4.1 rpg)
out of North Carolina, center Festus Ezeli out of Vanderbilt University and
forward Draymond Green out of Michigan State with the 35th pick.
Behind a career
season from Curry, who is finally healthy, the consistency of Lee (18.5 ppg,
11.2 rpg-5th NBA), who led the NBA with 56 double-doubles (points
and rebounds) in the regular season, steady progression from Thompson (16.6 ppg.
40.1 3-Pt.%), who made 211 three-pointers in the regular season, the Warriors
clearly have a bright future in front of them.
As far as the
present, mainly this first round series, the one team that will step to the
fore front on the defensive end will give themselves the best chance of
advancing.
The Warriors,
while they are tied for second in the league in rebounding this season at 45.0
per game, they are 19th in points allowed at 100.3. The Nuggets who
are tied with their first round opponent in rebounds per game surrender 101.1
points per contest, which is 23rd in the NBA.
The other key is
the health of both teams.
The Nuggets lost
their second leading scorer and their top marksman from three-point range in
Gallinari (16.5 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 37.3 3-Pt.%), to a torn left ACL back on Apr. 4
versus the Dallas Mavericks. The team may also not have Faried for Game 1 of
this series because of a sprained ankle he sustained in a 118-109 victory on
Apr. 14 versus the Portland Trail Blazers.
That would be a
big loss considering he averaged 11.5 points and 11.3 rebounds on 48.7 from the
floor in the four games against the Warriors in the regular season.
For the
Warriors, they hope that Bogut, who played just 32 games this season because of
injury, can be a defensive presence in the paint. He managed to play 17 minutes
in season finale on Apr. 17 at the Trail Blazers.
The other key
factor in this series is the home record of the Nuggets, who coming into this
series won 23 times at the Pepsi Center, a franchise NBA/ABA record. They are an
NBA best 38-3 on their home court this season. The Warriors went 28-13 at
ORACLE Arena. Both teams went 19-22 on the road in the regular season.
Prediction:
Nuggets in seven.
(4)
Los Angeles
Clippers (56-26) versus the (5) Memphis Grizzlies (56-26): Clippers won three
of the four regular season meetings.
They finished
with the same record in the regular season going 32-9 on their respective home
courts and 24-17 on the road, with each setting new franchise records for road
victories.
The Clippers won
one more game in conference going 35-17, while the Grizzlies went 34-18 versus
the West.
They each had
strong finishes to the regular season as the Clippers won their final seven
games while the Grizzlies won eight of their final 10 games, which includes two
straight wins.
The reason the
Clippers will open this series at the Staples Center is because back on Apr. 13
they won at the Grizzlies 91-87 winning the season series and clinching the No.
4 Seed and home court in this playoff match-up.
When the
Clippers take the court in Game 1 of this series at the Staples Center, it will
be just the second time in franchise history they will begin with home court
advantage.
A big reason why
the Clippers have confidence going up against Memphis is that they defeated
them in seven games a season ago. They stole home court of the first round
series a year ago by coming back from a 27-point deficit in the second half to
capture a 99-98 win. They also won Game 7 at the FedEx Forum to win the series
4-3.
The Clippers
also enter these playoffs with the understanding that their season has just
begun. Yes they won a franchise record 56 games in the regular season. Yes they
captured their first Pacific Division title in franchise history. Yes they
swept their inter town rivals the Lakers 4-0 this season and the games were not
even close. They know that their season will be judged by what they do in this
series and beyond if they advanced.
They will go as
far as their dynamic all-star duo of guard Chris Paul (16.9 ppg, 9.7 apg-2nd
NBA, 2.4 spg-leads NBA) and forward Blake Griffin (18.0 ppg, 8.3 rpg-leads
team) can take them.
Paul in the
regular season against the Grizzlies dominated his lead guard counterpart Mike
Conley averaging 16.3 points, 8.7 assists, 2.3 steals on 47.2 percent from the
field. Conley averaged only 10.3 points and 5.8 assists, which is far below his
season averages of 14.6 and 6.1 assists per game.
At power forward
spot, Griffin had a tough time in the season series against the Grizzlies
scoring just 13 points and grabbing seven boards on 44.4 percent from the
floor. His counterpart Zach Randolph (15.4 ppg, 11.2 rpg-4th NBA,
46.0 FG%), who is healthy entering the postseason this time from a year ago
averaged 14.8 points, 12.3 rebounds against the Clippers during the regular
season. If the Grizzlies are going to win this series though, he cannot shoot
37.3 percent from the field, which he did against the Clippers in the regular
season.
In a series that
features two of the top defensive teams in the business, this series could come
down to a number of X-factors.
For the Clippers
can guard Chauncey Billups, who played in just 21 games this season because of
injuries, return to the form that helped the Detroit Pistons and the Nuggets
reach the Conference Finals for seven straight seasons combined when he played
for those teams?
Will starting
center DeAndre Jordan, who had career-highs of 8.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg and field goal
percentage of 64.3 percent, which led the league, be a presence on in the paint
on both ends or just a spectator?
If he is a
spectator, Defensive Player of the Year candidate, younger brother of Pau Gasol
and starting center Marc Gasol (14.1 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 4.0 apg, 1.7 bpg-leads team)
of the Grizzlies will have a field day. Against the Clippers in the regular
season, he averaged 16.8 points.
The other factor
is the bench of the Clippers. Can Sixth Man of the Year candidate Jamal
Crawford (16.5 ppg, 43.8 FG%, 37.6 3-Pt%) rise to the occasion along with
swingman Matt Barnes (10.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 46.2 FG%, 34.2 3-Pt.%), forwards Caron
Butler (10.4 ppg, 38.3 3-Pt.%), Lamar Odom (4.0 ppg, 5.9 rpg) and Grant Hill
and guards Eric Bledsoe (8.5 ppg) and Willie Green (6.3 ppg).
The Clippers
reserves this season led the league in minutes, steals and blocks. They were
second in rebounds, fourth in points and fourth in assists.
For the
Grizzlies the question is can they generate enough offense for a consistent
period in each game to capture this series?
In the four
games against the Clippers in the regular season, they averaged just 87 points
on 40 percent from the field. Conley, who shot 44 percent this season, shot
just 30.2 percent from the floor and just 29.4 percent from three-point range
against the Clippers.
In terms of
perimeter shooting that will be left up to forward Tayshaun Prince (8.8 ppg,
4.2 rpg) and guards Jerryd Bayless (8.7 ppg, 35.3 3-Pt.%) and Keyon Dooling,
who they signed before the postseason.
On the season,
the Grizzlies averaged just 93.2 points (T-28th NBA). They were 21st
in shooting from the floor at 44.4 percent and 24th in three-point
percentage at 34.5 percent.
The Clippers
have one of the most efficient offenses in the business averaging 101.1 points
(T-9th NBA) on 47.8 percent from the field (4th NBA).
What might be an
Achilles for them in this series is that their three-point shooting is average
at 35.8 percent, tied for 15th in the league and they are 27th
in free throw shooting at 71.1 percent.
In 33 seasons of
L.A. Clippers basketball, they have lost 70 games in a season once; 60 or more
games four times (1987-88, 1994-95, 1999-00, 2008-09) and or more games 21
times. That is the kind of history that they are trying to put in their rear
view mirror and a solid playoff run this season could do that.
For the
Grizzlies, they had their coming out party two years ago when they took down,
the mighty Spurs in the first round in six games. They lost in the Conference
Semis to the West runner-up the Thunder in seven games.
Prior to this
season, the Grizzlies won 50 games or more in the regular season just once. That
happened nine seasons ago and they were swept by the Spurs in four games.
For one of these
teams, they will have their promising season come to a close.
Prediction:
Clippers in seven games.
Information and
statistics are courtesy of www.nba.com; www.espnl.go.com/nba/statistics/teams;
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denver_Nuggets; en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Knicks;
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memphis_Grizzlies;
Sporting
News 2006-07 Official NBA Guide.
